전체 #18 · shadow_watch
ADTN · ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
Communications Equipment · Opportunity 72.28, Risk 36.80, Confidence 99.33, Research Rank 69.87; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
69.87
Opportunity
72.28
Risk
36.80
Evidence Confidence
99.33
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$12.60
전일
1.37%
52주 위치
42.66%
60일 변동성
86.71%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Buy | 3.75 | — |
| sa analyst | HOLD | 3.00 | 1 |
| wall street | BUY | 4.44 | 9 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | B | C | A+ |
| growth | B | C+ | C- |
| profitability | C- | C- | D+ |
| momentum | B- | A | C+ |
| revisions | B- | C | D |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 83.33 | 25% | 20.83 |
| business quality | 71.55 | 20% | 14.31 |
| valuation | 85.79 | 15% | 12.87 |
| price trend | 45.91 | 15% | 6.89 |
| analyst opinion | 68.26 | 12% | 8.19 |
| news sentiment | 52.33 | 8% | 4.19 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 55.81 | 30% | 16.74 |
| expectation valuation | 37.37 | 25% | 9.34 |
| profitability cashflow | 28.21 | 20% | 5.64 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 14.70 | 10% | 1.47 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 0.57 | 145.96% | 0.50 | 0.61 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 0.76 | 34.34% | 0.65 | 0.91 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 1.02 | 34.21% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 1.19B | 9.38% | 1.17B | 1.20B | 8 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 1.29B | 8.97% | 1.27B | 1.30B | 7 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.43B | 10.71% | 1.43B | 1.43B | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.14 | 0.09 | +50.01% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.16 | 0.08 | +95.12% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.05 | 0.06 | -19.35% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -100.00% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 286086000.00 | 285542710.00 | +0.19% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 291560000.00 | 282385710.00 | +3.25% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 279435000.00 | 274656290.00 | +1.74% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 265068000.00 | 260596500.00 | +1.72% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | NM | 26.12 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 21.97 | 24.75 | -11.23% | B- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | NM | 35.16 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | NM | 33.20 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | - | 0.89 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 1.36 | 3.78 | -63.99% | A- |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 1.29 | 3.50 | -63.17% | A- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 16.73 | 19.53 | -14.36% | B- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 8.25 | 14.72 | -43.96% | A- |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | NM | 28.14 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 17.60 | 19.40 | -9.28% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 0.89 | 3.68 | -75.92% | A |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 0.85 | 3.37 | -74.88% | A |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 7.28 | 4.06 | 79.43% | D+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | - | 4.69 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 10.11 | 19.21 | -47.35% | A- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 18.84% | 11.36% | 65.84% | B |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 11.87% | 11.99% | -0.97% | C+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 179.71% | 14.90% | 1,105.86% | A+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 32.63% | 18.71% | 74.42% | B+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 230.60% | 20.77% | 1,010.03% | A+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | -48.84% | 8.54% | NM | D- |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 9.18% | 17.43% | -47.35% | C- |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | -8.79% | 15.41% | NM | D |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 7.07% | 17.12% | -58.73% | D+ |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | - | 5.62% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | -10.83% | 8.14% | NM | D+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 12.16% | 13.92% | -12.63% | C+ |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 38.57% | 49.88% | -22.68% | C- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | -0.41% | 7.61% | NM | C- |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 8.13% | 12.07% | -32.62% | C+ |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | -3.18% | 6.07% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 4.10% | 10.88% | -62.34% | C- |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | -22.66% | 7.52% | NM | D |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | -0.38% | 4.63% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | -3.01% | 3.32% | NM | C- |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 2.84% | 2.35% | 20.70% | B- |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.94x | 0.63x | 49.95% | A- |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 99.26M | 149.24M | -33.49% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 1.10 | 2.34 | -53.15% | C- |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | -10.92K | 14.03K | NM | C- |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 52.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-06-15 ·
Quant rating check: Top communication equipment peers as CMTL-GILT merger reshapes sector valuations
neutral 2026-05-05 ·
Adtran outlines $283M-$303M Q2 2026 revenue outlook as LiteWave800 targets production in about a year
neutral 2026-02-26 ·
Adtran outlines $275M-$295M Q1 2026 revenue target as fiber and optical momentum continues
positive 2026-02-25 ·
ADTRAN Non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.08, revenue of $291.56M beats by $9.17M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-05-29 · Individual Trader
Adtran: Rampant Data-Center Related Bandwidth Demands Powering Stock Forward
- Adtran Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) remains rated 'Hold' as shares approach multi-year technical resistance after a 75%+ rally since December 2025.
- ADTN's Q1 normalized EPS of $0.14 beat consensus by $0.05, with revenues exceeding $286 million and gross margin rising to 43% (non-GAAP).
- Sustained gross margin expansion, driven by data center demand and cost initiatives, is offsetting inflationary pressures and supporting improving operating margins.
- The launch of quantum-safe connectivity with euNetworks further entrenches ADTN in the data center space, but a breakout above $20 is needed to warrant a rating upgrade.
neutral 2025-12-11 · Individual Trader
Adtran: High Debt And Growing Receivables Continuing To Weigh On Stock (Technical Analysis)
- Adtran Holdings, Inc. is maintained at hold due to persistent negative earnings and a leveraged balance sheet.
- Despite double-digit top-line growth across all segments in Q3 this year, ADTN's profitability remains weak, and receivables are rising.
- Technical analysis signals a long-term bearish trend, with significant resistance near $10 and weak buying volume trends.
- Minimal near-term upside is expected as debt management overshadows operational improvements and market momentum.
negative 2025-09-24 · Individual Trader
Adtran: Negative Earnings And Rising Debt Limiting Upside Gains
- Adtran Holdings, Inc. remains rated 'Hold' due to technical resistance, negative earnings, and rising debt despite strong segment revenue growth.
- ADTN's Q2 results showed robust customer acquisition, especially in Optical Networking and Access & Aggregation, but top-line growth failed to improve earnings.
- The recent $175 million convertible note offering and persistent negative EBIT put pressure on free cash flow and highlight balance sheet leverage concerns.
- Margins remain stagnant, and a clear path to sustained profitability is needed before considering an upgrade from 'Hold.'
neutral 2025-04-23 · Individual Trader
Adtran: Improving EPS Revisions But Better Profitability Needed
- Upgraded ADTRAN Holdings from 'Sell' to 'Hold' in July 2024, with shares up 22% over nine months despite a long-term bear market.
- Q4 earnings show strong demand for fiber-related solutions, but high customer inventory levels and uncertain investment spending pose risks.
- ADTRAN aims to raise cash through balance-sheet restructuring, selling unused real estate, and monetizing non-core assets to manage $112 million net debt.
- Despite improved macro conditions, high inventory and receivables require faster turnover to enhance return on capital and operating profit margins.
neutral 2024-07-23 · Individual Trader
Adtran: Well Off April Lows, But Financials Need To Gain More Traction
- ADTRAN Holdings stock experienced a significant drop in value over the past 12 months, recovering slightly after a normalized EPS and revenue beat in Q1.
- The company registered a sizable impairment charge of $293 million in Q1, impacting its balance sheet and valuation metrics.
- Despite some positive trends in Q1, ADTN's struggling margins and high inventory levels pose challenges for future growth and performance.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $12.60 | 72.28 | 36.80 | 69.87 |