전체 #19 · shadow_watch
AGYS · Agilysys, Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 74.52, Risk 43.02, Confidence 98.65, Research Rank 69.86; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
69.86
Opportunity
74.52
Risk
43.02
Evidence Confidence
98.65
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$104.26
전일
-5.00%
52주 위치
51.06%
60일 변동성
55.83%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.53 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 4.00 | 1 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.50 | 8 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | D+ | D | D- |
| growth | B | C+ | D+ |
| profitability | B | B | B- |
| momentum | B | D | B- |
| revisions | A- | C | B- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| business quality | 78.96 | 20% | 15.79 |
| valuation | 36.98 | 15% | 5.55 |
| price trend | 58.23 | 15% | 8.73 |
| analyst opinion | 83.61 | 12% | 10.03 |
| news sentiment | 55.17 | 8% | 4.41 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 52.87 | 30% | 15.86 |
| expectation valuation | 76.42 | 25% | 19.11 |
| profitability cashflow | 16.20 | 20% | 3.24 |
| negative events | 28.00 | 15% | 4.20 |
| opinion data instability | 6.10 | 10% | 0.61 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Mar 2027 | 2.45 | 36.73% | 2.27 | 3.05 | 8 |
| EPS · Mar 2028 | 3.19 | 30.23% | 2.90 | 4.10 | 8 |
| EPS · Mar 2029 | 4.75 | 48.86% | 4.10 | 5.39 | 2 |
| REVENUE · Mar 2027 | 367.77M | 15.18% | 365.18M | 370.00M | 8 |
| REVENUE · Mar 2028 | 427.94M | 16.36% | 420.83M | 449.83M | 8 |
| REVENUE · Mar 2029 | 510.09M | 19.20% | 481.18M | 539.00M | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q4 | 0.63 | 0.50 | +26.72% |
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.42 | 0.46 | -7.84% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.40 | 0.38 | +4.35% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.33 | 0.36 | -8.76% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q4 | 82946000.00 | 81557290.00 | +1.70% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 80390000.00 | 79072430.00 | +1.67% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 79299000.00 | 76865500.00 | +3.17% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 76675000.00 | 74353000.00 | +3.12% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 61.66 | 26.12 | 136.07% | D |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 44.84 | 24.75 | 81.15% | D+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 80.11 | 35.16 | 127.86% | D |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 70.08 | 33.20 | 111.08% | D |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | 1.19 | 0.89 | 34.91% | C |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | 2.24 | 1.35 | 66.02% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 9.35 | 3.78 | 147.41% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 8.12 | 3.50 | 132.10% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 68.52 | 19.53 | 250.84% | D- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 33.81 | 14.72 | 129.74% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 87.08 | 28.14 | 209.45% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 55.58 | 19.40 | 186.54% | D- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 9.60 | 3.68 | 161.04% | D |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 8.38 | 3.37 | 148.77% | D+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 9.43 | 4.06 | 132.53% | D |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | - | 4.69 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 44.05 | 19.21 | 129.35% | D |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 15.85% | 11.36% | 39.56% | B- |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 15.80% | 11.99% | 31.79% | B- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 34.58% | 14.90% | 132.02% | B+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 28.42% | 18.71% | 51.91% | B |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | 36.39% | 17.19% | 111.71% | B |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 50.96% | 20.77% | 145.28% | A |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | 67.07% | 17.08% | 292.73% | B+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 27.17% | 17.54% | 54.90% | B+ |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | 67.07% | 12.73% | 426.80% | A- |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | 40.25% | 17.58% | 128.95% | B+ |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | 20.00% | 18.92% | 5.72% | C+ |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | -4.99% | 8.54% | NM | C- |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 26.82% | 17.43% | 53.81% | B |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 26.97% | 15.41% | 75.07% | B |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 24.19% | 17.12% | 41.31% | B |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | 41.57% | 3.24% | 1,183.42% | B+ |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | - | 5.62% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 372.05% | 8.14% | 4,472.70% | A+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | -33.60% | 13.92% | NM | D- |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | - | 5.93% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 62.61% | 49.88% | 25.53% | B |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 10.74% | 7.61% | 41.08% | B |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 13.64% | 12.07% | 13.02% | B- |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 12.15% | 6.07% | 100.03% | B+ |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 15.35% | 10.88% | 41.07% | B |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 13.09% | 7.52% | 74.08% | B+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 6.51% | 4.63% | 40.65% | B |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 8.06% | 3.32% | 142.65% | B+ |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 0.58% | 2.35% | -75.38% | D |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.70x | 0.63x | 10.80% | B- |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 70.00M | 149.24M | -53.10% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 4.16 | 2.34 | 77.91% | B |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 16.08K | 14.03K | 14.61% | B- |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 55.17; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-05-18 ·
Agilysys projects $365M-$370M FY2027 revenue with 24% adjusted EBITDA margin while positioning the Marriott PMS rollout as a multiyear driver
positive 2026-05-18 ·
Agilysys Non-GAAP EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.13, revenue of $82.9M beats by $1.34M
neutral 2026-05-17 ·
Quant snapshot: Baozun, Sohu among top-rated names as Sol Strategies, Arqit Quantum lag
positive 2026-01-26 ·
Agilysys signals $318M full-year revenue target as subscription growth and implementation efficiencies drive outlook
neutral 2026-01-26 ·
Agilysys Non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 misses by $0.04, revenue of $80.4M beats by $1.33M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
positive 2026-05-19 · Gary Alexander
Agilysys: Growth Trajectory And Margins Are Hitting An Inflection Point
- Agilysys, Inc. is demonstrating a profitability inflection, driven by AI-enabled cost efficiencies and robust recurring revenue growth.
- Q4 delivered record sales, 12% y/y revenue growth, 18% subscription growth, and 600bps EBITDA margin expansion to 25.9%.
- FY27 guidance calls for 14–16% revenue growth, 30%+ subscription growth, and a 24%+ adjusted EBITDA margin, excluding potential Marriott deal upside.
- I reiterate a Buy rating, as AGYS is well insulated from SaaS disruption and positioned for further upside with the Marriott rollout pending.
positive 2026-01-27 · Gary Alexander
Agilysis: A Healthy Dip To Buy (Upgrade)
- Agilysys shares fell over 10% post-earnings despite a beat-and-raise quarter, presenting a compelling buy opportunity after a 30% pullback.
- AGYS is diversifying beyond hotels, with growing traction in cruise ships, casinos, and increased cross-sell of products like Book4Time and foodservice solutions.
- Approximately two-thirds of AGYS revenue is recurring, underpinned by complex, sticky implementations and robust attach rates in new deals.
- The upcoming Marriott PMS rollout is a major near-term catalyst, expected to be heavily margin accretive and potentially surprise to the upside.
positive 2025-10-28 · Gary Alexander
Agilysys: Strong Cross-Sell Momentum, But Strength Is Priced In (Upgrade)
- Agilysys surged ~20% post-earnings, reversing earlier losses, but the current valuation appears stretched despite strong Q2 results and raised guidance.
- AGYS demonstrates robust cross-sell momentum, especially with foodservice products, and is close to launching its largest-ever Marriott PMS deal.
- Risks include macro headwinds in the travel sector, lower gross margins than SaaS peers, and rich valuation multiples after the recent rally.
- Rating is raised to neutral; while downside is limited by small/mid-cap rotation and growth, high valuation warrants a wait-and-see approach.
negative 2025-10-21 · Sandeep Nital David
Agilysys Q2 Preview: Risks Tilt To The Downside (Rating Downgrade)
- Agilysys shares are up 60% since my Buy recommendation in April.
- Results have since been solid, with organic subscription revenue growth sustaining near 25%.
- However, valuation looks expensive at 30 times FY27 adjusted EBITDA, especially when compared to relevant peers.
- There is a limited margin of safety at this valuation, particularly if the Marriott rollout faces delays.
- I am therefore downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold.
negative 2025-07-24 · Gary Alexander
Agilysys: At Such Elevated Multiples, We're Expecting More (Downgrade)
- Despite S&P 500 highs, macro headwinds persist, making expensive growth stocks like Agilysys particularly risky in this environment.
- Agilysys' organic growth is questionable, with recent gains largely driven by its Book4Time acquisition rather than true underlying expansion.
- Competition is intensifying in Agilysys' target sectors, while limited liquidity restricts further transformative M&A opportunities.
- AGYS stock's valuation is stretched at 10x revenue and 50x EBITDA; I recommend selling and locking in gains after the recent rebound.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $104.26 | 74.52 | 43.02 | 69.86 |