전체 #33 · shadow_watch
ALGM · Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.
Semiconductors · Opportunity 66.84, Risk 49.62, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 62.72; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
62.72
Opportunity
66.84
Risk
49.62
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$52.32
전일
2.88%
52주 위치
60.60%
60일 변동성
94.86%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Buy | 4.33 | — |
| sa analyst | HOLD | 2.50 | 2 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.72 | 11 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C- | D- | D |
| growth | A | A- | A- |
| profitability | B- | C+ | C- |
| momentum | A- | B+ | B- |
| revisions | C+ | B- | C- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 72.73 | 25% | 18.18 |
| business quality | 78.19 | 20% | 15.64 |
| valuation | 30.49 | 15% | 4.57 |
| price trend | 69.79 | 15% | 10.47 |
| analyst opinion | 71.24 | 12% | 8.55 |
| news sentiment | 55.33 | 8% | 4.43 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 61.17 | 30% | 18.35 |
| expectation valuation | 81.61 | 25% | 20.40 |
| profitability cashflow | 24.25 | 20% | 4.85 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 24.19 | 10% | 2.42 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Mar 2027 | 1.03 | 89.98% | 0.84 | 1.36 | 11 |
| EPS · Mar 2028 | 1.49 | 45.00% | 1.30 | 2.07 | 10 |
| EPS · Mar 2029 | 1.95 | 31.08% | 1.65 | 2.28 | 3 |
| REVENUE · Mar 2027 | 1.07B | 19.68% | 1.04B | 1.09B | 9 |
| REVENUE · Mar 2028 | 1.25B | 17.24% | 1.18B | 1.37B | 9 |
| REVENUE · Mar 2029 | 1.42B | 13.66% | 1.30B | 1.57B | 3 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q4 | 0.17 | 0.16 | +3.75% |
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.15 | 0.14 | +4.09% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | +5.37% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | +6.50% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q4 | 243187000.00 | 235936640.00 | +3.07% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 229210000.00 | 220866350.00 | +3.78% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 214294000.00 | 210744750.00 | +1.68% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 203405000.00 | 198221830.00 | +2.61% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 94.18 | 26.12 | 260.58% | F |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 49.57 | 24.75 | 100.26% | D |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | NM | 35.16 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 83.64 | 33.20 | 151.91% | D |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | - | 0.89 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | 1.19 | 1.35 | -11.66% | B- |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 10.80 | 3.78 | 185.83% | D |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 9.02 | 3.50 | 158.04% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 90.67 | 19.53 | 364.25% | D- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 34.62 | 14.72 | 135.25% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 250.12 | 28.14 | 788.84% | F |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 43.34 | 19.40 | 123.44% | D |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 10.57 | 3.68 | 187.54% | D |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 8.89 | 3.37 | 163.94% | D |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 9.87 | 4.06 | 143.34% | D |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 8.68 | 4.69 | 85.33% | D+ |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 58.10 | 19.21 | 202.54% | D- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | 54.78 | 18.88 | 190.16% | D- |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 22.77% | 11.36% | 100.49% | B+ |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 19.87% | 11.99% | 65.82% | B |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 107.16% | 14.90% | 619.05% | A |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 47.41% | 18.71% | 153.46% | A |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 66.21% | 20.77% | 218.70% | A |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 83.69% | 17.54% | 377.20% | A+ |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | 41.55% | 18.92% | 119.64% | A |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | 323.06% | 8.54% | 3,684.20% | A+ |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 104.45% | 17.43% | 499.12% | A+ |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 163.38% | 15.41% | 960.52% | A |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 65.32% | 17.12% | 281.49% | A |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | 81.40% | 5.62% | 1,349.56% | A+ |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | -3.53% | 8.14% | NM | C- |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | -4.45% | 13.92% | NM | C- |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 46.49% | 49.88% | -6.78% | C |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 4.32% | 7.61% | -43.26% | C+ |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 11.91% | 12.07% | -1.33% | B- |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | -1.67% | 6.07% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 16.85% | 10.88% | 54.86% | B+ |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | -1.58% | 7.52% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 1.88% | 4.63% | -59.46% | C+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | -1.05% | 3.32% | NM | C |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 4.29% | 2.35% | 82.44% | B |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.63x | 0.63x | -0.30% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 163.07M | 149.24M | 9.26% | B- |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 0.91 | 2.34 | -61.08% | D+ |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | -3,505.18 | 14.03K | NM | C |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 55.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-05-07 ·
Allegro MicroSystems forecasts Q1 FY 2027 EPS of $0.19 to $0.23 with sales of $245M to $255M
positive 2026-05-07 ·
Allegro MicroSystems Non-GAAP EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.01, revenue of $243.19M beats by $7.25M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-07-06 · Michael Del Monte
Allegro MicroSystems: Riding The 800-VDC Transition Across Robotics, Autos And More
- Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. is positioned for multiyear growth via automotive, data center, and industrial robotics markets, but shares reflect much of the near-term upside.
- Key ALGM growth drivers include higher content per vehicle, data center transition to 800-VDC, and an inflection point in robotics/physical AI expected in CY27.
- ALGM’s balance sheet has improved, with leverage down to 0.65x net debt/aEBITDA, supporting strategic M&A, debt reduction, and opportunistic share repurchases.
- I assign ALGM a Hold rating with a $64/share price target (30.95x eFY28 EV/aEBITDA), citing top-of-cycle valuation and modest upside from current levels.
neutral 2026-04-26 · Andrea De Vico
Allegro MicroSystems: Why It's Time To Take Profits
- Allegro MicroSystems is rated Sell due to significant overvaluation, with a fair value of $20.98 versus a current price near $44.
- Current market pricing implies an implausible 30-35% revenue CAGR over five years, unsupported by historical or peer growth rates.
- ALGM's recent recovery is real, but margin compression and operational inflexibility during downturns highlight structural risks.
- Investors are advised to cash out after the stock's run-up and await tangible fundamental drivers before reconsidering ALGM.
positive 2026-02-02 · Michael Del Monte
Allegro MicroSystems Sees Industrials Leading Growth
- Allegro MicroSystems is at the onset of a major growth cycle, driven by automotive, data center, and industrial robotics markets.
- Strong Buy rating with a $47.62/share price target is based on 32.16x eFY27 EV/aEBITDA, reflecting robust top-line and margin expansion potential.
- ALGM's data center content per rack is projected to nearly triple, while robotics and resilient Chinese EV demand offer additional growth levers.
- Financial strength is evident with improved net leverage (0.83x) and expectations for adjusted EBITDA margin to exceed 30% by eFY28.
neutral 2026-01-30 · The Value Investor
Allegro MicroSystems: Enthusiastically Pricing In Green Shoots
- Allegro MicroSystems shows sequential revenue recovery, but realistic earnings remain weak, with stock trading at demanding 8x sales multiples.
- Allegro's automotive segment still dominates, while data center exposure—currently just 10% of sales—drives recent investor enthusiasm and aggressive price action.
- Adjusted earnings are overstated due to significant stock-based compensation; true earnings trend at only $0.20–$0.30 per share.
- Despite new sensor launches and some green shoots, risk-reward is unattractive given lagging profits and market exuberance over limited AI/data center exposure.
neutral 2025-11-06 · MarketGyrations
Allegro MicroSystems: Improving Quarterly Results Overshadowed By Uncertainty Elsewhere
- The Q2 FY2026 report shows how Allegro MicroSystems continues to recover from the downturn, but this is offset by the possibility the numbers could get worse.
- The automotive industry is facing the possibility production could get disrupted, which will affect ALGM as a supplier.
- ALGM trades at relatively high valuations, which can still be worth paying as long as it maintains very fast growth.
- There is reason to doubt ALGM’s ability to maintain the desired growth, which is why I am neutral on ALGM with a hold rating.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $52.32 | 66.84 | 49.62 | 62.72 |