전체 #11 · selected
APPN · Appian Corporation
Systems Software · Opportunity 77.78, Risk 36.42, Confidence 97.97, Research Rank 73.74; 상위 10 및 업종 다양성 통과
Research Rank
73.74
Opportunity
77.78
Risk
36.42
Evidence Confidence
97.97
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$25.18
전일
-3.34%
52주 위치
23.88%
60일 변동성
67.93%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Buy | 4.20 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 3.50 | 2 |
| wall street | HOLD | 3.14 | 7 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | B- | D | F |
| growth | A | A | A |
| profitability | C | C+ | C+ |
| momentum | C | D+ | B- |
| revisions | A+ | A- | B |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| business quality | 80.09 | 20% | 16.02 |
| valuation | 77.68 | 15% | 11.65 |
| price trend | 53.48 | 15% | 8.02 |
| analyst opinion | 65.36 | 12% | 7.84 |
| news sentiment | 53.00 | 8% | 4.24 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 60.83 | 30% | 18.25 |
| expectation valuation | 43.86 | 25% | 10.96 |
| profitability cashflow | 12.50 | 20% | 2.50 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 11.04 | 10% | 1.10 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 0.99 | 61.55% | 0.94 | 1.01 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 1.26 | 27.44% | 1.13 | 1.43 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 1.56 | 24.22% | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 826.01M | 13.63% | 822.50M | 829.14M | 6 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 914.20M | 10.68% | 910.60M | 922.20M | 6 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.00B | 9.65% | 1.00B | 1.00B | 1 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.27 | 0.18 | +46.08% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.15 | 0.08 | +91.55% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.32 | 0.05 | +489.97% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.00 | -0.13 | +103.04% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 202180000.00 | 191749190.00 | +5.44% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 202867000.00 | 189257280.00 | +7.19% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 187004000.00 | 174153890.00 | +7.38% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 170640000.00 | 160051350.00 | +6.62% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 35.02 | 26.12 | 34.08% | C- |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 26.43 | 24.75 | 6.79% | C+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 2,177.73 | 35.16 | 6,094.14% | F |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | NM | 33.20 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | NM | 0.89 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 2.62 | 3.78 | -30.55% | B |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 2.42 | 3.50 | -30.71% | B- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 79.06 | 19.53 | 304.80% | D- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 19.73 | 14.72 | 34.08% | C |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 126.80 | 28.14 | 350.62% | D- |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 22.09 | 19.40 | 13.86% | C+ |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 2.53 | 3.68 | -31.27% | B |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 2.32 | 3.37 | -31.30% | B |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | NM | 4.06 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | NM | 4.69 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 28.66 | 19.21 | 49.21% | C- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | 21.89 | 18.88 | 15.95% | C+ |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 20.37% | 11.36% | 79.37% | B+ |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 14.00% | 11.99% | 16.83% | B- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | NM | 14.90% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 83.11% | 18.71% | 344.30% | A+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 122.47% | 20.77% | 489.54% | A+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | 46.97% | 8.54% | 450.22% | A- |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 226.95% | 17.43% | 1,201.76% | A+ |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 102.36% | 15.41% | 564.43% | A |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 150.25% | 17.12% | 777.53% | A+ |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | - | 5.62% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | -37.08% | 8.14% | NM | D- |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 26.83% | 13.92% | 92.76% | B- |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 72.47% | 49.88% | 45.30% | B+ |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 2.07% | 7.61% | -72.80% | C |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 3.32% | 12.07% | -72.50% | C- |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 0.12% | 6.07% | -98.09% | C- |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 11.57% | 10.88% | 6.38% | C+ |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | NM | 7.52% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 3.82% | 4.63% | -17.47% | C+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 0.14% | 3.32% | -95.72% | C |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 0.37% | 2.35% | -84.08% | D- |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 1.25x | 0.63x | 99.29% | A |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 66.74M | 149.24M | -55.28% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 2.04 | 2.34 | -12.75% | C+ |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 411.82 | 14.03K | -97.06% | C |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 53.00; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-05-07 ·
Appian forecasts $515M-$521M in FY2026 cloud subscription revenue while expanding buyback to $100M
positive 2026-05-07 ·
Appian Non-GAAP EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.09, revenue of $202.18M beats by $10.43M
neutral 2026-04-09 ·
Software sector plunges, cybersecurity names hit hardest, as AI disruption concerns persist
positive 2026-02-19 ·
Appian outlines $50M stock buyback and projects 16% cloud revenue growth for 2026 amid AI-driven momentum
positive 2026-02-19 ·
Appian Non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.07, revenue of $202.87M beats by $13.61M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-06-17 · Gary Alexander
Appian: Tremendous Bargain As Sales Productivity Steps Up
- Appian stands out as a business process re-engineering software company benefiting from long-standing AI and automation tailwinds.
- Despite a ~30% YTD decline, APPN's modest valuation and recent Q1 beat-and-raise reinforce its 'growth at a reasonable price' thesis.
- Q1 results highlighted improved net expansion rates and sales productivity, supporting confidence in APPN's operational momentum.
- I reiterate a "Buy" rating on APPN, citing raised guidance and underappreciated upside relative to broader software sector trends.
negative 2026-06-02 · Albert Anthony
Appian: Tech Platform With Margin And Cashflow Recovery Trends, Despite Q1 Net Loss
- Appian Corporation maintains a Hold rating due to robust revenue growth but ongoing lack of steady profitability and negative equity.
- APPN's Q1 showed 25% YoY cloud subscription growth and 31% YoY professional services growth, with FY26 revenue guidance of 18–19%.
- Operating cash flow is recovering, debt is declining, and share buybacks are ongoing, yet competitive pressures and muted upside persist.
- Despite undervaluation on EV/Sales and P/S, technicals and consensus forecasts suggest limited near-term price appreciation.
neutral 2026-04-17 · Gary Alexander
Appian: A Positive Setup Ahead Of Earnings, As AI And Federal Deals Jump
- Appian remains a compelling buy amid the SaaSpocalypse, trading near multi-year lows despite strong execution and AI-driven tailwinds.
- AI adoption is boosting APPN’s workflow demand and subscription pricing, with improved retention rates supporting the core automation thesis.
- Federal sector expansion, enabled by FedRAMP certification, is driving significant growth and diversifying APPN’s revenue streams.
- APPN’s high gross margins and sticky customer base position it as a deep value opportunity at a $1.51 billion enterprise value.
neutral 2026-02-11 · Donovan Jones
Appian Focuses On Upmarket Strategy As AI Competition Intensifies
- I reiterate a neutral Hold rating on Appian as it integrates generative AI, with near-term disruption risk appearing muted but forward growth slowing.
- APPN's revenue growth is decelerating (16% TTM to 13.5% FWD), yet positive earnings and disciplined capital allocation support stability.
- The firm's AI-centric strategy targets regulated industries, but faces long-term risk from AI-native platforms and major bundlers.
- APPN trades at a discount to SaaS peers on EV/sales, reflecting slower growth and competitive pressures despite higher net revenue retention.
neutral 2026-01-28 · The Alpha Sieve
Appian: Not Cheap, But Ongoing Improvements Probably Warrant More Positive Investor Interest
- Appian Corporation is rated a buy, supported by enhanced service offerings, improved cost control, useful cash flow generation and a compelling long-term risk-reward profile.
- APPN's recent agentic AI launch and its enhanced go-to-market productivity will drive solid EBITDA growth while organic cash generation is on the up with a decent FCF yield of +3%.
- Despite a 27x forward EBITDA multiple and 75% premium to PEGA, APPN's superior +30% EBITDA growth helps justifies the valuation (PEGA is set to grow at 17%).
- APPN is not yet benefitting from a shift in momentum conditions, but short-selling appetite has abated meaningfully, and the risk-reward on the long-term charts look favorable.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $25.18 | 77.78 | 36.42 | 73.74 |