전체 #24 · shadow_watch
AXTI · AXT, Inc.
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment · Opportunity 69.61, Risk 60.94, Confidence 84.07, Research Rank 60.06; 현재 선정 경계 64.72 미만
Research Rank
60.06
Opportunity
69.61
Risk
60.94
Evidence Confidence
84.07
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$60.61
전일
+3.38%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
170.37%
동종 39종목 대비 위치
마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.
기회이 종목 69.61
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 60.94 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 84.07
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 60.06
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 52.67
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33
SA 의견·팩터 등급
의견 · 등급 (1~5)
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수 | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | — | 4.86 | — |
| sa analyst | 보유 | 3.25 | 8 |
| wall street | 매수 | 4.40 | 5 |
팩터 등급 추이
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C- | D+ | C- |
| growth | B+ | C+ | C+ |
| profitability | D | D+ | C- |
| momentum | A+ | A+ | A+ |
| revisions | B+ | A | D- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | — | 25% | — |
| business quality | — | 20% | — |
| valuation | — | 15% | — |
| price trend | 60.80 | 15% | 9.12 |
| analyst opinion | 79.25 | 12% | 9.51 |
| news sentiment | 52.67 | 8% | 4.21 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 96.09 | 30% | 28.83 |
| expectation valuation | — | 25% | — |
| profitability cashflow | — | 20% | — |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 16.92 | 10% | 1.69 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 0.87 | — | 0.81 | 0.91 | 5 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 2.23 | 156.45% | 1.92 | 2.61 | 5 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 3.29 | 47.80% | 2.65 | 3.79 | 3 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 217.98M | 146.79% | 215.59M | 220.50M | 5 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 460.55M | 111.28% | 431.96M | 495.00M | 5 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 677.05M | 47.01% | 594.74M | 736.40M | 3 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.19 | 0.07 | +163.89% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | -0.01 | -0.05 | +78.26% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | -0.05 | -0.06 | +13.79% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | -0.03 | -0.12 | +74.58% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 47.59M | 34.08M | +39.63% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 26.92M | 26.22M | +2.69% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 23.04M | 24.24M | -4.96% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 27.95M | 20.30M | +37.68% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / EBITDA (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Price / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| Revenue Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EBITDA Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Net Income Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Return on Common Equity (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Cash From Operations (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 52.67; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
positive 2026-08-31 · Henrik Alex
AXT: 조정으로 투기적 투자자에 기회 제공 — 매수(등급 상향)
- Four weeks ago, AXT reported much better-than-expected second-quarter results and provided strong guidance for Q3.
- Main Chinese operating subsidiary Tongmei abandoned plans to list on the Shanghai STAR market and is now pursuing a Hong Kong listing.
- In recent months, increasing hyperscaler capex scrutiny has resulted in a sharp correction of AI infrastructure stocks.
- While the long-term sustainability of hyperscaler capex remains a key concern, AXT's near- and medium-term prospects appear exceptionally strong. As a result, I am upgrading the company's shares from "Hold" to "Buy" with a price target of $85.
neutral 2026-08-30 · Bears of Wall Street
AXT: 소형주 반도체 가운데 가장 명확한 매도 종목
- AXT is rated Sell due to an unfavorable risk/reward after a >30x market cap surge, despite strong AI-driven fundamentals.
- Q2 marked a fundamental inflection: revenue up 164% Y/Y to $47.6M, InP revenue and gross margin at record highs, supported by long-term contracts.
- Current valuation requires flawless execution—rapid InP capacity ramp, sustained 45%+ margins, and seamless Chinese export permits—all simultaneously.
- While AI optical demand is robust, any execution slip or permit delay could sharply impact AXTI's stretched valuation and investor returns.
neutral 2026-08-28 · Market Edge Researcher
AXT: AI 주도 InP 수요, 위험 감수할 만한 밸류에이션
- AXT is experiencing rapid growth driven by surging indium phosphide (InP) demand for AI and optical data transmission.
- Q2 2026 revenue soared 77% sequentially to $47.6 million, with record InP sales and substantial gross margin expansion to 44.9%.
- Strong operating leverage is evident, as non-GAAP net income reached $11.9 million versus a $0.15 loss per share a year ago.
- I rate AXTI a buy, citing robust AI infrastructure tailwinds, accelerating profitability, and capacity investments supporting sustained growth.
neutral 2026-08-28 · First Principles Partners
AXT: 업계 변화와 비용 구조 모두 역풍
- AXT is rated Sell due to unsustainable margins and overvaluation despite strong AI-driven demand for indium phosphide.
- AXTI's gross margin surged to 44.9% in Q2 2026, but contractual caps and easing shortages signal imminent margin reversion.
- Industry shift to 6-inch InP wafers favors competitors with better yields; AXTI lags in scaling and consistency.
- Valuation is stretched: base case fair value is $45, well below current levels, with significant downside risk from margin compression and competitive headwinds.
positive 2026-08-02 · Alan Sumler
AI 인프라의 다년간 수요 사이클로 AXT 밸류에이션 상향 여지
- AXT reported strong Q2 financial performance with record level revenue, profit, and net income.
- The company is benefiting from high demand for its indium phosphide substrate used in AI datacenter infrastructure.
- AXT expects demand to last many years and the company has signed three different indium phosphide supply agreements.
- Although down from its all-time high, the stock price has gained. 2,800% over the last twelve months.
- The AI sector rally is still ongoing and I change my rating from a Hold to a Strong Buy due to potential future valuation.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $57.57 | 61.52 | 71.00 | 53.30 |
| 2026-07-16 | $57.57 | 61.53 | 71.01 | 53.30 |
| 2026-07-17 | $45.57 | 60.76 | 71.65 | 52.58 |
| 2026-07-20 | $45.86 | 60.73 | 71.62 | 52.57 |
| 2026-07-21 | $48.83 | 60.63 | 71.62 | 52.50 |
| 2026-07-22 | $56.51 | 59.72 | 59.33 | 54.10 |
| 2026-07-23 | $52.98 | 63.10 | 60.54 | 55.95 |
| 2026-07-24 | $52.93 | 64.42 | 60.53 | 56.77 |
| 2026-07-27 | $47.23 | 64.37 | 60.55 | 56.73 |
| 2026-07-28 | $47.88 | 64.60 | 60.53 | 56.88 |
| 2026-07-29 | $42.76 | 63.75 | 60.76 | 56.30 |
| 2026-07-30 | $36.97 | 62.54 | 62.17 | 55.26 |
| 2026-07-31 | $46.94 | 64.64 | 62.12 | 56.58 |
| 2026-08-03 | $60.43 | 72.85 | 62.24 | 61.64 |
| 2026-08-04 | $68.67 | 77.41 | 61.66 | 64.59 |
| 2026-08-05 | $65.27 | 75.05 | 61.63 | 63.13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $68.61 | 73.34 | 60.91 | 62.22 |
| 2026-08-07 | $75.17 | 74.24 | 60.91 | 62.78 |
| 2026-08-10 | $88.58 | 76.33 | 60.89 | 64.08 |
| 2026-08-11 | $73.81 | 74.57 | 60.89 | 62.99 |
| 2026-08-12 | $73.78 | 76.91 | 60.89 | 64.44 |
| 2026-08-18 | $95.97 | 77.19 | 60.89 | 64.61 |
| 2026-08-19 | $82.31 | 77.19 | 60.89 | 64.61 |
| 2026-08-20 | $73.43 | 74.69 | 60.89 | 63.06 |
| 2026-08-21 | $73.12 | 75.68 | 60.89 | 63.68 |
| 2026-08-24 | $70.74 | 83.24 | 61.50 | 68.09 |
| 2026-09-01 | $60.61 | 69.61 | 60.94 | 60.06 |