전체 #7 · shadow_watch
BILL · BILL Holdings, Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 73.49, Risk 28.60, Confidence 85.42, Research Rank 69.62; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
69.62
Opportunity
73.49
Risk
28.60
Evidence Confidence
85.42
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$49.23
전일
-2.15%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
47.38%
동종 39종목 대비 위치
마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.
기회이 종목 73.49
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 28.60 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 85.42
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 69.62
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 52.00
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33
SA 의견·팩터 등급
의견 · 등급 (1~5)
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수 | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | — | 4.46 | — |
| sa analyst | 매수 | 4.00 | 3 |
| wall street | 매수 | 4.04 | 22 |
팩터 등급 추이
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | B+ | A+ | A- |
| growth | B- | B+ | B- |
| profitability | C+ | C+ | C |
| momentum | B | D- | C+ |
| revisions | B- | B+ | A- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | — | 25% | — |
| business quality | — | 20% | — |
| valuation | — | 15% | — |
| price trend | 71.59 | 15% | 10.74 |
| analyst opinion | 79.14 | 12% | 9.50 |
| news sentiment | 52.00 | 8% | 4.16 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 40.72 | 30% | 12.21 |
| expectation valuation | — | 25% | — |
| profitability cashflow | — | 20% | — |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 5.16 | 10% | 0.52 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Jun 2027 | 3.74 | 34.86% | 3.58 | 4.03 | 20 |
| EPS · Jun 2028 | 4.35 | 16.40% | 4.02 | 4.81 | 19 |
| EPS · Jun 2029 | 5.23 | 20.23% | 4.70 | 5.43 | 5 |
| REVENUE · Jun 2027 | 1.79B | 8.03% | 1.42B | 1.84B | 18 |
| REVENUE · Jun 2028 | 1.96B | 9.71% | 1.58B | 2.08B | 18 |
| REVENUE · Jun 2029 | 2.19B | 11.82% | 1.78B | 2.37B | 6 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q4 | 0.84 | 0.71 | +18.49% |
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.68 | 0.55 | +23.15% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.64 | 0.56 | +14.18% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.61 | 0.51 | +20.78% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q4 | 436.19M | 430.53M | +1.31% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 406.56M | 403.38M | +0.79% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 414.67M | 399.93M | +3.69% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 395.74M | 391.26M | +1.15% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / EBITDA (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Price / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| Revenue Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EBITDA Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Net Income Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Return on Common Equity (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Cash From Operations (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 52.00; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-08-28 · Research and Value
BILL Holdings: 순조로운 진전, 우려할 변수는 없다
- BILL Holdings delivered solid FY4Q 2026 results, exceeding guidance and consensus on revenue and EPS, with notable operating profitability improvement.
- BILL's emerging AI moat leverages a massive proprietary financial data set and a unique 9 million-member network, supporting its competitive position and future growth.
- Share buybacks have reduced outstanding shares by 15 million, and BILL remains undervalued at 2.1x FY2027E revenue, with an updated price target of $86 (approximately 83% upside).
- Risks include a recent slowdown in net new customer additions, as well as AI-related disruption challenges, but the company anticipates customer growth reacceleration next quarter.
positive 2026-08-19 · Gary Alexander
BILL 홀딩스: TPV 성장 가속과 뛰어난 이익 성장
- BILL Holdings remains a buy, with strong Q4 results, accelerating payment volumes, and attractive valuation multiples despite recent gains.
- BILL's business model is resilient, with only 17% of revenue tied to headcount and the majority driven by rising payment volumes.
- AI adoption is fueling both customer spend and internal efficiencies, with TPV from AI-native companies doubling sequentially and new AI-powered features forthcoming.
- Pro forma operating margins surged to 23%, and FY27 guidance implies 9-12% revenue growth and 31% EPS expansion, supporting further upside.
neutral 2026-08-10 · The Alpha Sieve
빌 홀딩스: SMB 집중 소프트웨어 턴어라운드 스토리, 상승 여력 충분
- BILL Holdings a leading SMB-focused FinOps platform with an embedded customer base, is following an AI-native thrust as it seeks to exercise greater clout in its target market.
- Recent leadership changes and a 30% workforce reduction are driving operational efficiency, with earnings poised to expand at 24% p.a. over the medium term.
- A $1B share repurchase program (20% of the current market-cap), robust FCF conversion above 20%, and compelling valuations (PEG of 0.5x) solidify the investment case.
- I also touch upon some of the key metrics that will be discussed at the upcoming earnings event that is due to be held on the 19th of August.
neutral 2026-05-29 · Research and Value
AI 우려 과도에 따른 극히 저평가된 BILL 홀딩스
- BILL Holdings is a category-leading SMB financial operations SaaS platform, trading at 1.9x FY2028e core revenue and 8.1x adjusted FCF multiple.
- Despite a 16% stock decline since May 2025, BILL continues to outperform guidance, expand margins, and accelerate AI-native transformation.
- A $1B share repurchase (25%+ of market cap) and raised FY26 operating income guidance underscore management's confidence in long-term growth and FCF generation.
- I see 65% upside to a $66/share target, driven by AI monetization, operating leverage, and resilient embedded customer workflows despite macro and competitive risks.
neutral 2026-05-20 · Gary Alexander
BILL 홀딩스: 신규 인력 감축으로 수익성 강화
- BILL Holdings faces headwinds from declining interest rates, SMB exposure, and SaaS sector pressures, leading to a ~20% YTD decline.
- Despite negative sentiment, BILL's valuation has become attractive, presenting compelling entry points for investors seeking turnaround potential.
- Workforce reductions and AI-driven efficiency, trends seen in larger peers, are also underway at smaller firms like BILL.
- My prior bullish stance on BILL remains intact, supported by its strategic cost-cutting and leaner operational focus.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $41.37 | 77.66 | 31.49 | 75.37 |
| 2026-07-16 | $41.37 | 77.75 | 31.39 | 75.46 |
| 2026-07-17 | $44.66 | 79.73 | 31.99 | 76.80 |
| 2026-07-20 | $44.71 | 79.68 | 32.06 | 76.74 |
| 2026-07-21 | $45.18 | 80.23 | 32.02 | 77.17 |
| 2026-07-22 | $44.26 | 70.72 | 33.13 | 66.87 |
| 2026-07-23 | $41.89 | 70.12 | 32.25 | 66.68 |
| 2026-07-24 | $41.26 | 69.59 | 32.18 | 66.36 |
| 2026-07-27 | $43.51 | 69.89 | 32.46 | 66.49 |
| 2026-07-28 | $44.90 | 70.57 | 32.64 | 66.89 |
| 2026-07-29 | $46.36 | 70.33 | 32.85 | 66.69 |
| 2026-07-30 | $47.41 | 70.98 | 32.86 | 67.10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $45.39 | 70.10 | 33.16 | 66.47 |
| 2026-08-03 | $45.13 | 69.23 | 32.91 | 65.97 |
| 2026-08-04 | $47.22 | 69.69 | 33.03 | 66.24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $48.57 | 70.67 | 33.08 | 66.86 |
| 2026-08-06 | $48.32 | 71.19 | 31.94 | 67.43 |
| 2026-08-07 | $47.00 | 71.25 | 32.20 | 67.41 |
| 2026-08-10 | $47.99 | 71.40 | 32.04 | 67.54 |
| 2026-08-11 | $49.26 | 69.25 | 31.88 | 66.20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $49.48 | 68.52 | 31.79 | 65.75 |
| 2026-08-18 | $48.50 | 64.41 | 32.84 | 62.90 |
| 2026-08-19 | $49.17 | 64.78 | 32.56 | 63.19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $47.71 | 66.25 | 31.56 | 64.35 |
| 2026-08-21 | $47.40 | 62.52 | 31.47 | 61.98 |
| 2026-08-24 | $47.82 | 62.71 | 31.39 | 62.12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $49.23 | 73.49 | 28.60 | 69.62 |