전체 #5 · shadow_watch
BILL · BILL Holdings, Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 77.66, Risk 31.49, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 75.37; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
75.37
Opportunity
77.66
Risk
31.49
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$41.37
전일
-3.48%
52주 위치
38.60%
60일 변동성
56.05%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.54 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 3.66 | 3 |
| wall street | BUY | 4.04 | 24 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | A | A | B+ |
| growth | B+ | B- | C- |
| profitability | C+ | C | B- |
| momentum | C | C- | C |
| revisions | A | A | B+ |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| business quality | 78.12 | 20% | 15.62 |
| valuation | 77.64 | 15% | 11.65 |
| price trend | 50.02 | 15% | 7.50 |
| analyst opinion | 77.01 | 12% | 9.24 |
| news sentiment | 51.83 | 8% | 4.15 |
| catalyst | 90.00 | 5% | 4.50 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 45.05 | 30% | 13.52 |
| expectation valuation | 43.89 | 25% | 10.97 |
| profitability cashflow | 12.50 | 20% | 2.50 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 9.02 | 10% | 0.90 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Jun 2026 | 2.64 | 19.58% | 2.61 | 2.75 | 22 |
| EPS · Jun 2027 | 3.36 | 26.98% | 2.86 | 3.93 | 22 |
| EPS · Jun 2028 | 4.07 | 21.29% | 3.44 | 4.89 | 13 |
| REVENUE · Jun 2026 | 1.64B | 12.11% | 1.50B | 1.66B | 24 |
| REVENUE · Jun 2027 | 1.85B | 13.02% | 1.80B | 1.95B | 23 |
| REVENUE · Jun 2028 | 2.10B | 13.33% | 1.97B | 2.32B | 11 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.68 | 0.55 | +23.15% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.64 | 0.56 | +14.18% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.61 | 0.51 | +20.78% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.53 | 0.41 | +30.12% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 406563000.00 | 403384120.00 | +0.79% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 414671000.00 | 399931620.00 | +3.69% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 395741000.00 | 391255220.00 | +1.15% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 383349000.00 | 376261730.00 | +1.88% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 17.42 | 26.12 | -33.29% | B |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 16.22 | 24.75 | -34.48% | B+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 26.64K | 35.16 | 75,665.80% | F |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 375.57 | 33.20 | 1,031.17% | F |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | NM | 0.89 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | 0.41 | 1.35 | -69.98% | A+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 2.49 | 3.78 | -34.16% | B |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 2.43 | 3.50 | -30.57% | B- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 119.01 | 19.53 | 509.37% | F |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 11.85 | 14.72 | -19.46% | B |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | NM | 28.14 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 12.98 | 19.40 | -33.06% | B |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 2.71 | 3.68 | -26.24% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 2.60 | 3.37 | -22.74% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 1.12 | 4.06 | -72.34% | A |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 1.24 | 4.69 | -73.63% | A+ |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 10.98 | 19.21 | -42.81% | B+ |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | 12.81 | 18.88 | -32.14% | B+ |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 12.47% | 11.36% | 9.80% | C+ |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 12.83% | 11.99% | 7.04% | C+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | NM | 14.90% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 23.64% | 18.71% | 26.37% | B- |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 27.52% | 20.77% | 32.46% | B |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 16.53% | 17.54% | -5.73% | C+ |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | 40.00% | 18.92% | 111.44% | A |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | -20.77% | 8.54% | NM | D |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 20.45% | 17.43% | 17.33% | C+ |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 12.51% | 15.41% | -18.80% | C |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 22.61% | 17.12% | 32.04% | B- |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | -99.57% | 3.24% | NM | F |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | 15.45% | 5.62% | 175.15% | B+ |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 4.01% | 8.14% | -50.70% | C |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 228.27% | 13.92% | 1,539.82% | A |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 83.68% | 49.88% | 67.78% | A |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | -2.94% | 7.61% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 2.09% | 12.07% | -82.69% | D+ |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 0.01% | 6.07% | -99.83% | C- |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 10.47% | 10.88% | -3.73% | C+ |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 0.00% | 7.52% | -99.94% | C |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | -0.52% | 4.63% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 0.00% | 3.32% | -99.95% | C |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 0.36% | 2.35% | -84.72% | D- |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.16x | 0.63x | -74.20% | D- |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 388.66M | 149.24M | 160.42% | B+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 9.99 | 2.34 | 327.05% | A |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 68.95 | 14.03K | -99.51% | C |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 51.83; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
positive 2026-05-26 ·
Bill Holdings reshuffles executive team as it readies for next phase of growth
neutral 2026-05-19 ·
Starboard Value’s largest holding assigned Hold as per Seeking Alpha's quant rating
neutral 2026-05-15 ·
As yields climb, these interest‑rate sensitive stocks rank best on Seeking Alpha’s Quant system
positive 2026-05-07 ·
Bill.com Non-GAAP EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.13, revenue of $406.6M beats by $3.22M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-05-29 · Research and Value
BILL Holdings: Very Low Valuation With AI Fears Overdone
- BILL Holdings is a category-leading SMB financial operations SaaS platform, trading at 1.9x FY2028e core revenue and 8.1x adjusted FCF multiple.
- Despite a 16% stock decline since May 2025, BILL continues to outperform guidance, expand margins, and accelerate AI-native transformation.
- A $1B share repurchase (25%+ of market cap) and raised FY26 operating income guidance underscore management's confidence in long-term growth and FCF generation.
- I see 65% upside to a $66/share target, driven by AI monetization, operating leverage, and resilient embedded customer workflows despite macro and competitive risks.
neutral 2026-05-20 · Gary Alexander
BILL Holdings: Ramping Profitability With New Layoffs
- BILL Holdings faces headwinds from declining interest rates, SMB exposure, and SaaS sector pressures, leading to a ~20% YTD decline.
- Despite negative sentiment, BILL's valuation has become attractive, presenting compelling entry points for investors seeking turnaround potential.
- Workforce reductions and AI-driven efficiency, trends seen in larger peers, are also underway at smaller firms like BILL.
- My prior bullish stance on BILL remains intact, supported by its strategic cost-cutting and leaner operational focus.
neutral 2026-04-22 · The Value Investor
BILL Holdings: Real AI Concerns, But Priced Accordingly
- BILL Holdings trades near all-time lows, reflecting AI disruption fears and post-pandemic valuation compression.
- Revenue growth remains steady at 12-14% with stable user metrics, but operating leverage and profitability are minimal.
- Enterprise value sits just above 2x sales, supported by a $400 million net cash position and interest-free convertible debt until 2030.
- While AI poses a credible threat, BILL's SME focus and integrated platform may delay disruption, warranting cautious observation rather than immediate action.
neutral 2026-02-06 · Gary Alexander
BILL Holdings: Muscle Past AI Fears And Buy This Stock For Value
- BILL Holdings defies AI disruption fears and macro headwinds, delivering a Q2 beat and raising guidance for FY26.
- BILL's valuation is compelling at 2.2x EV/FY26 revenue and 16.9x FY26 P/E, with double-digit growth and strong gross margins.
- The platform's stickiness is evident as TPV and customer base expand, supporting resilient subscription revenue despite SMB sector challenges.
- With M&A speculation and a diversified 200,000+ customer base, BILL offers a de-risked entry point at a ~20% S&P 500 discount.
neutral 2025-12-30 · Eleceed Capital
BILL Holdings: Still In A Wait-And-See Phase
- BILL Holdings remains a Hold as growth and monetization lag, despite activist involvement providing a valuation floor.
- Activist pressure from Barington Capital and historic low valuation multiples create downside protection but do not catalyze near-term upside.
- Embed 2.0 and new ERP partnerships could lower CAC and accelerate growth, but material impact is likely deferred to FY2027.
- With core growth at 14% y/y and monetization declining, visible catalysts are lacking until FY2027, keeping BILL range-bound.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $41.37 | 77.66 | 31.49 | 75.37 |