전체 #39 · shadow_watch
CIFR · Cipher Digital Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 50.51, Risk 67.78, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 45.94; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
45.94
Opportunity
50.51
Risk
67.78
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$19.87
전일
-1.07%
52주 위치
59.87%
60일 변동성
103.79%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Buy | 3.94 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 3.50 | 4 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.68 | 16 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | D+ | D | D |
| growth | A+ | A+ | A- |
| profitability | D | D- | A+ |
| momentum | B+ | A | A+ |
| revisions | C | D | D+ |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 58.33 | 25% | 14.58 |
| business quality | 57.61 | 20% | 11.52 |
| valuation | 0.00 | 15% | 0.00 |
| price trend | 54.74 | 15% | 8.21 |
| analyst opinion | 76.01 | 12% | 9.12 |
| news sentiment | 44.67 | 8% | 3.57 |
| catalyst | 70.00 | 5% | 3.50 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 74.01 | 30% | 22.20 |
| expectation valuation | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| profitability cashflow | 71.31 | 20% | 14.26 |
| negative events | 34.00 | 15% | 5.10 |
| opinion data instability | 12.17 | 10% | 1.22 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | -0.93 | 56.85% | -1.55 | -0.52 | 14 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | -0.36 | 61.62% | -0.79 | -0.05 | 9 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 0.54 | — | -0.12 | 1.49 | 3 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 233.73M | 4.37% | 184.17M | 276.90M | 14 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 873.49M | 273.71% | 756.59M | 1.02B | 12 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.13B | 28.98% | 876.28M | 1.68B | 5 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | -0.28 | -0.26 | -6.86% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | -1.85 | -0.10 | -1738.78% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | -0.01 | -0.05 | +79.38% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -54.34% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 34838000.00 | 36494280.00 | -4.54% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 59711000.00 | 85162610.00 | -29.89% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 71707000.00 | 76520010.00 | -6.29% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 43565000.00 | 51410840.00 | -15.26% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | NM | 26.12 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | NM | 24.75 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | NM | 35.16 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | NM | 33.20 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | - | 0.89 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 58.49 | 3.78 | 1,447.97% | F |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 52.51 | 3.50 | 1,401.41% | F |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 74.01 | 19.53 | 278.97% | D- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 313.81 | 14.72 | 2,032.19% | F |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | NM | 28.14 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | NM | 19.40 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 37.60 | 3.68 | 922.57% | F |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 35.15 | 3.37 | 943.10% | F |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 11.40 | 4.06 | 180.91% | D |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 11.81 | 4.69 | 152.10% | D |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | NM | 19.21 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | NM | 18.88 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 37.96% | 11.36% | 234.20% | A |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 79.41% | 11.99% | 562.52% | A+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 1,522.81% | 14.90% | 10,118.09% | A+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 75.19% | 18.71% | 301.99% | A+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | NM | 20.77% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | NM | 8.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | NM | 17.43% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | NM | 15.41% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.12% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.62% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 16,644.40% | 8.14% | 204,466.17% | A+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 143.04% | 13.92% | 927.57% | A |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 12.37% | 49.88% | -75.19% | D- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | -4.43% | 7.61% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 79.03% | 12.07% | 554.63% | A+ |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | NM | 6.07% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | NM | 10.88% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | -123.89% | 7.52% | NM | F |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | -0.19% | 4.63% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | -14.04% | 3.32% | NM | D |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 451.39% | 2.35% | 19,100.38% | A+ |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.06x | 0.63x | -90.87% | F |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | -69.17M | 149.24M | NM | F |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 1.76 | 2.34 | -24.55% | C+ |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | -13.60M | 14.03K | NM | F |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 44.67; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
negative 2026-06-08 ·
What's behind Cipher Digital stock rally: $810M debt offering meets BTC bounce
neutral 2026-06-02 ·
5 of 7 proxy stocks trail BTC's 12% fall: Investors piled into these 6 miner stocks
neutral 2026-05-26 ·
Xerox to join Russell Microcap Index while Applied Digital set to exit among tech firms
neutral 2026-05-19 ·
Inflation panic, rising yields, rate hike pressure returns: Crypto stocks drown in red
neutral 2026-05-14 ·
Cipher, Hut 8, TeraWulf initiated with Buy at Jefferies amid AI data center pivot
neutral 2026-05-05 ·
Cipher Digital expects $787M average annualized contracted NOI from October 2026 to September 2036, supported by 907 MW operating and contracted capacity
negative 2026-05-05 ·
Cipher Digital GAAP EPS of -$0.28 misses by $0.02, revenue of $34.84M misses by $1.65M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-07-05 · Tyler Wiedwald
Cipher Digital: From Bitcoin Miner To AI Infrastructure Landlord
- Cipher Digital has transformed from Bitcoin mining to a leading AI data center landlord, securing $11.4B in contracted lease revenue.
- CIFR’s signed leases with AWS and Fluidstack are set to generate $787M in average annualized NOI, with revenue ramping up from 2027 onward.
- Shares trade at a discount to peers, with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $28, based on contracted cash flows.
- Risks include significant capital needs for pipeline buildout and execution on multi-campus developments, though anchor tenants and financing reduce near-term risk.
neutral 2026-06-21 · Miletus Research
Cipher Digital: $11.4B Backlog Built For Hyperscale
- Cipher Digital has pivoted from Bitcoin mining to a hyperscale HPC platform, securing three long-term leases totaling 700 MW contracted capacity.
- Q1 2026 headline revenue decline reflects planned mining wind-down; the core story is $11.4B in contracted revenue and a visible $787M average annualized NOI ramp.
- Capital structure is derisked by $5.2B in project-level non-recourse debt, $715M unrestricted cash, and a new $200M undrawn corporate revolver with major banks.
- We rate CIFR a Buy with a $40 price target (~30% upside), anchored on contracted NOI and pipeline option value, while monitoring tenant concentration and ERCOT batch 0 risks.
neutral 2026-05-28 · Sandpiper Investment Research
Cipher Digital: Taking Advantage Of An Expensive, Volatile Stock Through Options
- Cipher Digital has surged 611% in a year, fueled by ambitious data center lease announcements with AWS and Google.
- Despite $11.4B in contracted revenue over 15 years, CIFR currently generates declining bitcoin mining revenue and faces a massive execution gap.
- With $2B in debt, $1.1B in cash, and no operational data center revenue, the valuation already bakes in near-perfect execution.
- I rate CIFR a 'sell' due to overvaluation but see merit in selling a short strangle to capitalize on elevated implied volatility.
neutral 2026-05-06 · The J Thesis
Cipher Digital: 2 Tailwinds, 1 Undervalued Play
- Cipher Digital surged 36% since my last bullish call, outperforming benchmarks and validating my thesis.
- I maintain a Buy rating as CIFR's pivot to the AI niche is a multi-year tailwind, with several favorable catalysts developing.
- Forward P/S remains attractive given expectations for 270% revenue growth next year, supporting potential for multiple expansion.
- Recent earnings and expansion deals reinforce CIFR's significant top-line growth story, though risks remain present.
neutral 2026-04-07 · Juan Ignacio Orlando
Cipher Digital: From Bitcoin Miner To AI Landlord
- Cipher Digital is transforming from a Bitcoin miner to a hyperscale data center landlord, targeting AI infrastructure demand.
- CIFR has secured long-term, investment-grade leases with AWS and Google, underpinning stable, high-margin cash flows starting in late 2026.
- With a $14.5 NAV per share (conservative assumptions) versus a $12.82 market price, CIFR appears undervalued, excluding a robust 3.4 GW pipeline.
- Issuing a Buy rating, I see catalysts in rent commencement, pipeline execution, and new hyperscaler contracts while monitoring construction, dilution, and customer concentration risks.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $19.87 | 50.51 | 67.78 | 45.94 |