전체 #7 · shadow_watch
ESTC · Elastic N.V.
Application Software · Opportunity 77.66, Risk 33.06, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 74.98; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
74.98
Opportunity
77.66
Risk
33.06
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$62.32
전일
-0.18%
52주 위치
37.53%
60일 변동성
53.91%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Buy | 4.12 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 4.00 | 2 |
| wall street | BUY | 4.06 | 31 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C+ | C | C- |
| growth | B- | B | B |
| profitability | A- | B | B |
| momentum | C | D- | D+ |
| revisions | B | A+ | B |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 96.15 | 25% | 24.04 |
| business quality | 79.31 | 20% | 15.86 |
| valuation | 74.52 | 15% | 11.18 |
| price trend | 53.26 | 15% | 7.99 |
| analyst opinion | 76.53 | 12% | 9.18 |
| news sentiment | 55.17 | 8% | 4.41 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 50.81 | 30% | 15.24 |
| expectation valuation | 46.38 | 25% | 11.60 |
| profitability cashflow | 12.50 | 20% | 2.50 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 1.26 | 10% | 0.13 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Apr 2027 | 3.24 | 26.15% | 2.70 | 3.75 | 30 |
| EPS · Apr 2028 | 3.88 | 19.66% | 3.44 | 4.48 | 28 |
| EPS · Apr 2029 | 4.87 | 25.52% | 4.01 | 5.29 | 6 |
| REVENUE · Apr 2027 | 1.99B | 14.61% | 1.95B | 2.05B | 29 |
| REVENUE · Apr 2028 | 2.28B | 14.38% | 2.20B | 2.39B | 28 |
| REVENUE · Apr 2029 | 2.62B | 14.98% | 2.45B | 2.80B | 7 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q4 | 0.61 | 0.56 | +8.44% |
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.73 | 0.65 | +12.96% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.64 | 0.58 | +11.08% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.60 | 0.42 | +43.41% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q4 | 450681000.00 | 446201500.00 | +1.00% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 449881000.00 | 438421270.00 | +2.61% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 423481000.00 | 418088970.00 | +1.29% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 415288000.00 | 397334190.00 | +4.52% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 24.20 | 26.12 | -7.35% | C+ |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 19.26 | 24.75 | -22.21% | B- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 18.20 | 35.16 | -48.23% | A- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 253.82 | 33.20 | 664.48% | F |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | NM | 0.89 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | 0.97 | 1.35 | -28.16% | B |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 3.28 | 3.78 | -13.11% | B- |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 2.86 | 3.50 | -18.08% | B- |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | NM | 19.53 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 15.19 | 14.72 | 3.20% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | NM | 28.14 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 15.16 | 19.40 | -21.83% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 3.78 | 3.68 | 2.83% | C+ |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 3.26 | 3.37 | -3.39% | C+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 5.12 | 4.06 | 26.27% | C |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 4.22 | 4.69 | -10.03% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 19.85 | 19.21 | 3.37% | C+ |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | 16.30 | 18.88 | -13.68% | B- |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 17.26% | 11.36% | 51.98% | B |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 15.41% | 11.99% | 28.57% | B- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | NM | 14.90% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 24.96% | 18.71% | 33.46% | B- |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 27.15% | 20.77% | 30.68% | B |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 23.89% | 17.54% | 36.24% | B |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | 19.85% | 18.92% | 4.92% | C+ |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | 25.75% | 8.54% | 201.68% | B |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 25.08% | 17.43% | 43.87% | B |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 22.81% | 15.41% | 48.09% | B- |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 25.25% | 17.12% | 47.45% | B |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | -2.04% | 5.62% | NM | D+ |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | -11.32% | 8.14% | NM | D+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 17.19% | 13.92% | 23.50% | C+ |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 76.16% | 49.88% | 52.69% | A- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | -1.82% | 7.61% | NM | C- |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -1.65% | 12.07% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 21.14% | 6.07% | 248.16% | A |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 26.55% | 10.88% | 143.99% | A |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 33.38% | 7.52% | 343.88% | A |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | -1.17% | 4.63% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 11.67% | 3.32% | 251.36% | A |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 0.29% | 2.35% | -87.55% | D- |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.61x | 0.63x | -3.79% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 326.89M | 149.24M | 119.03% | B |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 7.34 | 2.34 | 213.75% | A- |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 91.51K | 14.03K | 552.39% | A |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 55.17; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-05-29 ·
Elastic forecasts FY 2027 revenue of $1.985B-$2.0B while targeting ~19% non-GAAP operating margin
positive 2026-05-28 ·
Elastic Non-GAAP EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.05, revenue of $450.68M beats by $4.48M
positive 2026-02-27 ·
Elastic raises FY 2026 revenue guidance to $1.736B as AI customer count tops 3,000
positive 2026-02-26 ·
Elastic Non-GAAP EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.08, revenue of $449.88M beats by $11.46M
positive 2026-02-03 ·
Enterprise software stocks tumble as analysts mull growth acceleration amid AI impact
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-06-25 · Tech and Growth
Elastic: The AI Story Is Not Enough
- Elastic remains a buy, with an FY 2027 price target of $65.7, implying 12% upside.
- ESTC's fundamentals show steady mid-teens revenue growth and improving non-GAAP profitability, though GAAP losses persist due to high SBC.
- The recent 7% workforce reduction is positioned to drive GAAP operating breakeven and margin expansion, supporting a potential re-rating.
- Risk centers on execution post-restructuring and competitive threats from Datadog and Dynatrace, but liquidity and cash flow remain strong.
neutral 2026-05-30 · Gary Alexander
Elastic: RPO Acceleration And Rich FCF
- Elastic remains a deep value opportunity despite a recent 30% rally and strong post-earnings performance.
- ESTC's complex infrastructure software and consumption-based model insulate it from AI-driven risks impacting simpler, seat-based SaaS peers.
- Recent fiscal Q4 results exceeded expectations, with bullish forward guidance and growing backlog from AI-native customers.
- At a $65 share price, ESTC trades at a $5.9 billion enterprise value, still reflecting market skepticism on AI risk.
neutral 2026-04-08 · Virginia Backaitis
Elastic Is Not A SaaS Company - Wall Street Hasn't Figured That Out Yet
- Elastic is mispriced as a legacy log tool, despite being critical infrastructure for enterprise AI and security workloads.
- ESTC’s data consumption model benefits from AI adoption, with AI workloads driving a 6%+ uplift in compute consumption and expanding use cases.
- FedRAMP High authorization unlocks significant federal opportunities, while hybrid search and security offerings position ESTC ahead of pure-play vector startups and Splunk.
- At ~$50, ESTC trades at a deep discount to peers, with a $500M buyback signaling management conviction and a 60–80% takeout premium as a potential floor.
positive 2026-04-07 · Gary Alexander
Elastic: AI Resistant, Strong Growth, And Great Value
- Elastic remains fundamentally strong despite a ~30% YTD decline and sector-wide SaaS selloff.
- ESTC's consumption-based pricing model and 112% net retention rate insulate it from AI-driven layoffs and churn.
- AI trends may serve as a tailwind for ESTC, supporting its complex, developer-focused search platform.
- With high-teens growth and margins, ESTC trades at just 2.3x FY27 EV/revenue, making the current dip a buying opportunity.
neutral 2026-01-21 · Fundamental Options
Elastic: AI Tailwinds And Undervalued
- Elastic offers a narrow+ economic moat from high switching costs, robust cross-sell opportunities, and strong net expansion rates, supporting a bullish investment thesis.
- Financial flexibility is notable, with $1.39B cash, $0.57B debt, and a $500M share repurchase plan, enabling continued R&D and strategic acquisitions.
- Valuation models indicate Elastic is ~56.5% undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $108.8 and 16% revenue growth projected, justifying a stock position over options.
- Key risks include intense competition, especially in Security and Observability, and uncertainty around GenAI tailwinds and long-term margin assumptions.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $62.32 | 77.66 | 33.06 | 74.98 |