전체 #2 · selected
ESTC · Elastic N.V.
Application Software · Opportunity 84.31, Risk 37.10, Confidence 85.42, Research Rank 74.73; 상위 10 및 업종 다양성 통과
Research Rank
74.73
Opportunity
84.31
Risk
37.10
Evidence Confidence
85.42
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$97.55
전일
-2.36%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
60.99%
동종 39종목 대비 위치
마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.
기회이 종목 84.31
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 37.10 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 85.42
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 74.73
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 53.33
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33
SA 의견·팩터 등급
의견 · 등급 (1~5)
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수 | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | — | 4.93 | — |
| sa analyst | 매수 | 4.00 | 2 |
| wall street | 매수 | 4.00 | 31 |
팩터 등급 추이
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C- | C- | C- |
| growth | B- | C+ | B |
| profitability | A- | B | B |
| momentum | A+ | D+ | D+ |
| revisions | A- | B- | A- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | — | 25% | — |
| business quality | — | 20% | — |
| valuation | — | 15% | — |
| price trend | 96.81 | 15% | 14.52 |
| analyst opinion | 82.79 | 12% | 9.93 |
| news sentiment | 53.33 | 8% | 4.27 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 54.35 | 30% | 16.31 |
| expectation valuation | — | 25% | — |
| profitability cashflow | — | 20% | — |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 11.01 | 10% | 1.10 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Apr 2027 | 3.37 | 30.97% | 3.32 | 3.60 | 28 |
| EPS · Apr 2028 | 3.94 | 17.11% | 3.44 | 4.43 | 30 |
| EPS · Apr 2029 | 4.74 | 20.12% | 4.01 | 5.45 | 12 |
| REVENUE · Apr 2027 | 2.01B | 15.33% | 2.00B | 2.01B | 27 |
| REVENUE · Apr 2028 | 2.30B | 14.60% | 2.25B | 2.39B | 29 |
| REVENUE · Apr 2029 | 2.63B | 14.61% | 2.51B | 2.80B | 13 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2027Q1 | 0.70 | 0.58 | +19.85% |
| EPS · FY2026Q4 | 0.61 | 0.56 | +8.44% |
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.73 | 0.65 | +12.96% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.64 | 0.58 | +11.08% |
| Revenue · FY2027Q1 | 478.11M | 469.66M | +1.80% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q4 | 450.68M | 446.20M | +1.00% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 449.88M | 438.42M | +2.61% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 423.48M | 418.09M | +1.29% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / EBITDA (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Price / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| Revenue Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EBITDA Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Net Income Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Return on Common Equity (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Cash From Operations (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 53.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
positive 2026-08-28 · Gary Alexander
엘라스틱: 매출 성장 가속 지속, SaaS 위기 없다
- Elastic delivered strong fiscal Q1 results, raised full-year guidance, and saw a ~15% post-earnings stock surge.
- ESTC’s consumption-based model insulates it from per-seat SaaS risks and positions it to benefit from rising data usage and AI trends.
- Net expansion rates exceed 110% and backlog growth outpaces revenue, signaling robust customer engagement and future revenue visibility.
- With nearly $1 billion net cash, a $500 million buyback, and high-teen growth/margins, ESTC remains attractively valued and a continued "Buy."
neutral 2026-06-25 · Tech and Growth
Elastic: AI 스토리만으로는 충분하지 않다
- Elastic remains a buy, with an FY 2027 price target of $65.7, implying 12% upside.
- ESTC's fundamentals show steady mid-teens revenue growth and improving non-GAAP profitability, though GAAP losses persist due to high SBC.
- The recent 7% workforce reduction is positioned to drive GAAP operating breakeven and margin expansion, supporting a potential re-rating.
- Risk centers on execution post-restructuring and competitive threats from Datadog and Dynatrace, but liquidity and cash flow remain strong.
neutral 2026-05-30 · Gary Alexander
Elastic: RPO 가속화와 풍부한 잉여현금흐름
- Elastic remains a deep value opportunity despite a recent 30% rally and strong post-earnings performance.
- ESTC's complex infrastructure software and consumption-based model insulate it from AI-driven risks impacting simpler, seat-based SaaS peers.
- Recent fiscal Q4 results exceeded expectations, with bullish forward guidance and growing backlog from AI-native customers.
- At a $65 share price, ESTC trades at a $5.9 billion enterprise value, still reflecting market skepticism on AI risk.
neutral 2026-04-08 · Virginia Backaitis
Elastic은 SaaS 기업이 아니다 – 월가는 아직 이를 제대로 인식하지 못했다
- Elastic is mispriced as a legacy log tool, despite being critical infrastructure for enterprise AI and security workloads.
- ESTC’s data consumption model benefits from AI adoption, with AI workloads driving a 6%+ uplift in compute consumption and expanding use cases.
- FedRAMP High authorization unlocks significant federal opportunities, while hybrid search and security offerings position ESTC ahead of pure-play vector startups and Splunk.
- At ~$50, ESTC trades at a deep discount to peers, with a $500M buyback signaling management conviction and a 60–80% takeout premium as a potential floor.
neutral 2026-04-07 · Gary Alexander
Elastic: AI 영향에 강하고, 견조한 성장과 매력적인 밸류에이션
- Elastic remains fundamentally strong despite a ~30% YTD decline and sector-wide SaaS selloff.
- ESTC's consumption-based pricing model and 112% net retention rate insulate it from AI-driven layoffs and churn.
- AI trends may serve as a tailwind for ESTC, supporting its complex, developer-focused search platform.
- With high-teens growth and margins, ESTC trades at just 2.3x FY27 EV/revenue, making the current dip a buying opportunity.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $62.32 | 77.66 | 33.06 | 74.98 |
| 2026-07-16 | $62.32 | 77.72 | 33.22 | 74.99 |
| 2026-07-17 | $62.11 | 77.57 | 33.14 | 74.90 |
| 2026-07-20 | $61.59 | 77.70 | 33.12 | 75.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | $62.74 | 78.01 | 33.05 | 75.25 |
| 2026-07-22 | $60.18 | 68.14 | 35.28 | 64.76 |
| 2026-07-23 | $58.68 | 62.01 | 34.01 | 61.11 |
| 2026-07-24 | $57.33 | 61.45 | 34.01 | 60.75 |
| 2026-07-27 | $58.68 | 61.97 | 34.15 | 61.05 |
| 2026-07-28 | $61.24 | 68.21 | 34.36 | 65.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | $62.10 | 67.82 | 34.52 | 64.72 |
| 2026-07-30 | $64.44 | 68.47 | 34.49 | 65.15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $64.25 | 68.53 | 34.40 | 65.20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $65.79 | 69.21 | 34.59 | 65.60 |
| 2026-08-04 | $68.74 | 70.66 | 34.91 | 66.45 |
| 2026-08-05 | $71.06 | 71.28 | 34.77 | 66.89 |
| 2026-08-06 | $69.72 | 71.22 | 34.81 | 66.84 |
| 2026-08-07 | $69.95 | 71.42 | 34.90 | 66.95 |
| 2026-08-10 | $75.11 | 72.98 | 35.36 | 67.85 |
| 2026-08-11 | $76.32 | 73.66 | 35.31 | 68.29 |
| 2026-08-12 | $76.35 | 72.81 | 35.28 | 67.76 |
| 2026-08-18 | $83.44 | 75.33 | 36.60 | 69.09 |
| 2026-08-19 | $85.01 | 79.81 | 36.48 | 71.98 |
| 2026-08-20 | $87.34 | 81.17 | 36.51 | 72.85 |
| 2026-08-21 | $85.90 | 81.00 | 36.52 | 72.74 |
| 2026-08-24 | $85.94 | 82.50 | 36.19 | 73.77 |
| 2026-09-01 | $97.55 | 84.31 | 37.10 | 74.73 |