전체 #24 · shadow_watch
FORM · FormFactor, Inc.
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment · Opportunity 74.02, Risk 47.98, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 68.52; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
68.52
Opportunity
74.02
Risk
47.98
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$116.33
전일
5.47%
52주 위치
67.26%
60일 변동성
102.79%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.86 | — |
| sa analyst | STRONG BUY | 5.00 | 1 |
| wall street | BUY | 4.00 | 10 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | D+ | D- | D |
| growth | B+ | B+ | C- |
| profitability | C- | C- | C- |
| momentum | A- | A+ | A+ |
| revisions | A- | A | A+ |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| business quality | 71.83 | 20% | 14.37 |
| valuation | 33.22 | 15% | 4.98 |
| price trend | 63.58 | 15% | 9.54 |
| analyst opinion | 90.53 | 12% | 10.86 |
| news sentiment | 53.33 | 8% | 4.27 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 62.45 | 30% | 18.74 |
| expectation valuation | 79.42 | 25% | 19.86 |
| profitability cashflow | 26.40 | 20% | 5.28 |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 11.07 | 10% | 1.11 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 2.44 | 87.47% | 2.25 | 2.51 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 2.79 | 14.53% | 1.85 | 3.85 | 8 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 3.95 | 41.33% | 2.89 | 5.00 | 2 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 963.56M | 22.75% | 939.91M | 976.40M | 9 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 1.09B | 13.41% | 933.20M | 1.21B | 10 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.33B | 21.78% | 1.11B | 1.56B | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.56 | 0.44 | +27.59% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.46 | 0.35 | +30.60% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.33 | 0.25 | +32.76% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.27 | 0.30 | -10.00% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 226144000.00 | 225537780.00 | +0.27% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 215163000.00 | 210601700.00 | +2.17% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 202676000.00 | 199967220.00 | +1.35% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 195798000.00 | 190174330.00 | +2.96% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 68.09 | 26.12 | 160.69% | D- |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 45.26 | 24.75 | 82.84% | D+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 126.80 | 35.16 | 260.67% | D- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 61.18 | 33.20 | 84.27% | D+ |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | 4.88 | 0.89 | 451.79% | D- |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 9.92 | 3.78 | 162.41% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 8.64 | 3.50 | 147.11% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 60.61 | 19.53 | 210.32% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 32.90 | 14.72 | 123.51% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 83.74 | 28.14 | 197.58% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 39.06 | 19.40 | 101.38% | D |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 10.17 | 3.68 | 176.75% | D |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 8.92 | 3.37 | 164.81% | D |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 8.12 | 4.06 | 100.15% | D+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 7.36 | 4.69 | 57.04% | C- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 62.84 | 19.21 | 227.23% | D- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | 45.96 | 18.88 | 143.43% | D |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 9.60% | 11.36% | -15.48% | C |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 12.69% | 11.99% | 5.88% | C+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 70.50% | 14.90% | 373.03% | A- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 32.43% | 18.71% | 73.38% | B+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | 109.97% | 17.19% | 539.75% | A |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 45.70% | 20.77% | 120.01% | A- |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | 25.96% | 17.08% | 51.99% | B- |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 36.07% | 17.54% | 105.64% | A- |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | -22.47% | 12.73% | NM | D |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | 36.07% | 17.58% | 105.17% | B+ |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | NM | 8.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | - | 17.43% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 26.61% | 15.41% | 72.75% | B- |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 24.90% | 17.12% | 45.45% | B |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | 17.61% | 3.24% | 443.77% | B |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | 22.44% | 5.62% | 299.70% | A- |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 9.71% | 8.14% | 19.30% | C+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 130.05% | 13.92% | 834.26% | A |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 42.20% | 49.88% | -15.39% | C- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 11.84% | 7.61% | 55.60% | B |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 16.36% | 12.07% | 35.52% | B |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 8.14% | 6.07% | 34.01% | B |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | -0.07% | 10.88% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 6.75% | 7.52% | -10.22% | B- |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 5.94% | 4.63% | 28.33% | B |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 5.44% | 3.32% | 63.92% | B |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 11.94% | 2.35% | 407.86% | A- |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.70x | 0.63x | 10.65% | B- |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 136.82M | 149.24M | -8.32% | B- |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 1.58 | 2.34 | -32.24% | C |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 31.74K | 14.03K | 126.31% | B |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 53.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-04-30 ·
FormFactor surges as GF says strong Q1 results indicate there is 'more to come'
positive 2026-04-29 ·
FormFactor Non-GAAP EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.13, revenue of $226.14M beats by $0.94M
neutral 2026-02-04 ·
FormFactor targets $225M Q1 revenue with continued gross margin expansion as HBM and data center demand accelerate
positive 2026-02-04 ·
FormFactor Non-GAAP EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.11, revenue of $215.1M beats by $4.5M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-05-19 · Peter Geppert
FormFactor: Compelling Entry After Investor Day Selloff
- FormFactor dropped 12.8% after unveiling an ambitious 2030 plan targeting $1.6B revenue, 55% gross margin, and $5.00 non-GAAP EPS.
- FORM’s forward thesis centers on HBM4 share gains, GPU and co-packaged optics catalysts, and a Texas plant expansion unlocking probe-card capacity.
- Valuation remains stretched at 12.06x forward sales, with execution risk tied to Texas plant readiness and potential earnings misses impacting 2027 guidance.
- I initiate a Buy rating with a $165 fair value, viewing the post-Investor Day selloff as a compelling entry ahead of multiple near-term catalysts.
neutral 2026-02-27 · Ahmed Abdelazim
FormFactor: Don't Fear The Valuation, The HBM4 Earnings Inflection Is Here
- As a key probe card supplier to the top-3 HBM makers, FormFactor, Inc. is in a favorable position in 2026 with the beginning of HBM4 mass production.
- HBM4’s higher test intensity driven by a higher layer count and a pin count doubling from HBM3E should lead probe cards to wear out faster and drive faster replacement cycles.
- Despite near-term capacity constraints and cost headwinds, I expect FORM revenues to grow 18.5% YoY, beyond the current target model, and drive an adjusted operating margin expansion in FY 2026.
- FormFactor’s growing momentum in foundry and logic probe cards, highlighted by customer traction in GPU and custom ASIC applications, could help drive a rerating near its direct peer’s, Technoprobe, levels.
- I’m initiating FORM stock with a Buy rating and a $122 price target, a 25% potential upside from its current valuation.
neutral 2026-02-13 · The Curious Analyst
FormFactor's Margin Pivot Looks Real And HBM Is The Fuel
- FormFactor is rated Buy, driven by rising earnings power amid AI-driven test complexity and advanced packaging demand.
- FORM's margin expansion and operational improvements, highlighted in Q4 2025 results, support a premium valuation despite high multiples.
- Key growth catalysts include the Texas manufacturing ramp, silicon photonics expansion, and a pivotal May 2026 Analyst Day.
- Risks center on a potential AI/HBM cycle downturn and execution on the Farmers Branch facility, both critical to sustaining FORM's premium.
neutral 2026-01-20 · Gytis Zizys
FormFactor Q4 Preview: Riding The Memory Shortage Wave
- FormFactor, Inc. has surged on memory demand, but current valuation already reflects optimistic sentiment.
- FORM's Q4 sales momentum is strong, especially in memory probe cards, with potential to exceed guidance amid AI and data center tailwinds.
- Key watch items include capacity utilization, updates on the Farmers Branch facility, and capex normalization post-2025.
- Given FORM stock's high multiples and uncertain earnings leverage, I remain on the sidelines pending meaningful profitability improvement.
neutral 2025-10-31 · Gytis Zizys
FormFactor: The Positives May Be Priced In For Now
- FormFactor delivered strong operational improvements and sequential sales growth, sending shares up over 24% despite flat year-over-year revenue.
- FORM's DRAM probe cards and systems segment outperformed, with robust demand from South Korea and improving margins due to cost controls and efficiency gains.
- Management raised guidance for the next quarter, forecasting higher sales and EPS, fueled by ongoing AI and data center investment trends.
- Despite positive momentum, I maintain a hold rating, as the recent share price surge appears to have priced in near-term growth and improvements.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $116.33 | 74.02 | 47.98 | 68.52 |