전체 #9 · selected
FSLY · Fastly, Inc.
Internet Services and Infrastructure · Opportunity 80.80, Risk 46.57, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 73.95; 상위 10 및 업종 다양성 통과
Research Rank
73.95
Opportunity
80.80
Risk
46.57
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$20.90
전일
4.34%
52주 위치
51.21%
60일 변동성
126.27%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.91 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 3.85 | 7 |
| wall street | BUY | 3.54 | 11 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C- | D+ | B |
| growth | A | A | A+ |
| profitability | C+ | C+ | C |
| momentum | A | A+ | B |
| revisions | A+ | A | B+ |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| business quality | 79.41 | 20% | 15.88 |
| valuation | 63.15 | 15% | 9.47 |
| price trend | 75.79 | 15% | 11.37 |
| analyst opinion | 77.49 | 12% | 9.30 |
| news sentiment | 59.67 | 8% | 4.77 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 82.25 | 30% | 24.68 |
| expectation valuation | 55.48 | 25% | 13.87 |
| profitability cashflow | 17.80 | 20% | 3.56 |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 14.65 | 10% | 1.47 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 0.32 | 149.88% | 0.30 | 0.37 | 11 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 0.39 | 21.45% | 0.33 | 0.47 | 11 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 0.47 | 19.47% | 0.45 | 0.50 | 3 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 718.63M | 15.16% | 711.20M | 725.01M | 11 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 800.75M | 11.43% | 781.48M | 827.86M | 11 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 873.52M | 9.09% | 841.60M | 936.68M | 4 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | +50.22% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.12 | 0.06 | +109.20% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.07 | 0.00 | +41076.47% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | -0.03 | -0.05 | +42.75% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 173021000.00 | 171777750.00 | +0.72% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 172612000.00 | 161361770.00 | +6.97% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 158223000.00 | 151044780.00 | +4.75% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 148709000.00 | 144855120.00 | +2.66% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | NM | 26.12 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 61.66 | 24.75 | 149.09% | D- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | NM | 35.16 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | NM | 33.20 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | - | 0.89 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 4.91 | 3.78 | 29.85% | C |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 4.46 | 3.50 | 27.40% | C |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | NM | 19.53 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 28.76 | 14.72 | 95.39% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | NM | 28.14 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 49.90 | 19.40 | 157.26% | D- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 4.59 | 3.68 | 24.79% | C |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 4.36 | 3.37 | 29.45% | C |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 3.21 | 4.06 | -21.00% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | - | 4.69 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 29.57 | 19.21 | 53.95% | C- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | 30.37 | 18.88 | 60.87% | C- |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 17.66% | 11.36% | 55.47% | B |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 13.78% | 11.99% | 14.94% | B- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | NM | 14.90% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 70.91% | 18.71% | 279.12% | A |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | NM | 20.77% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | 121.37% | 8.54% | 1,321.67% | A |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | NM | 17.43% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 369.91% | 15.41% | 2,301.09% | A+ |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 110.93% | 17.12% | 547.89% | A+ |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | - | 5.62% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 115.34% | 8.14% | 1,317.63% | A |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 288.63% | 13.92% | 1,973.45% | A+ |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 59.39% | 49.88% | 19.08% | B- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | -15.98% | 7.61% | NM | D |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -8.47% | 12.07% | NM | D |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | -15.79% | 6.07% | NM | D |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 17.90% | 10.88% | 64.49% | B+ |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | -10.66% | 7.52% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | -4.77% | 4.63% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | -6.81% | 3.32% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 7.22% | 2.35% | 207.08% | A- |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.44x | 0.63x | -30.00% | D+ |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 106.02M | 149.24M | -28.96% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 0.94 | 2.34 | -59.90% | C- |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | -90.40K | 14.03K | NM | D |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 59.67; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
positive 2026-05-07 ·
Fastly free falls despite Q1 beat as growth likely decelerates throughout year: analysts
positive 2026-05-06 ·
Fastly raises 2026 revenue outlook to $710M-$725M while projecting EPS of $0.27-$0.33
positive 2026-05-06 ·
Earnings Snapshot: Fastly's profitability trend is up; Q1 beats revenue, EPS estimates
positive 2026-05-06 ·
Fastly Non-GAAP EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.04, revenue of $173.02M beats by $1.24M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-06-16 · The Asian Investor
Fastly: Shrinking AI Premium, Strong Buy
- Fastly remains a compelling AI-driven edge cloud platform despite a sharp post-earnings sell-off tied to disappointing Q2 guidance.
- FSLY achieved 20% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1'26 and posted its fifth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow.
- Shares trade at a discounted 3.6X forward P/S, well below Cloudflare and Akamai, reflecting market overreaction to near-term deceleration.
- Slowing sequential growth and FCF compression are risks, but FSLY's expanding AI offerings and positve FCF trajectory support a bullish long-term outlook.
neutral 2026-06-12 · Wail Shudar
Fastly: A 20% Grower Priced Like A Mature CDN
- Fastly trades at 4.3x EV/NTM revenue despite 20% revenue growth—the peer floor for comparable growth names is 5.5-6x, making the discount hard to justify on fundamentals alone.
- NRR accelerated from 100% to 113% in four consecutive quarters while RPO surged 63% YoY—both metrics signal the platform strategy is working, not hoping.
- Security revenue grew 47% YoY for the fourth straight quarter and now represents 22% of total revenue, directly driving a 9-point gross margin expansion since Q1 2025.
- Non-GAAP EPS hit $0.13 in Q1 2026, SBC has fallen from 34% to 19% of revenue, and FY2025 marked the first positive FCF year — three converging signals of profitability.
neutral 2026-06-10 · Stephen Ayers
Fastly: High Expectations Still Priced In Despite Pullback
- Fastly is undergoing a transformation, leveraging its security suite to drive margin expansion and consistent non-GAAP profitability.
- Security revenue grew 47% YoY in Q1 but remains a small portion of total revenue; long-term growth is expected to moderate.
- My DCF analysis shows FSLY is priced for aggressive assumptions, with significant reliance on terminal value and optimistic margin expansion.
- I rate FSLY a Sell, as upside appears limited unless security momentum and margin improvements far exceed current projections.
neutral 2026-06-10 · Value Vest
Fastly: A Turnaround Taking Shape, But Risks Remain
- Fastly is rated hold, reflecting operational progress but ongoing GAAP losses and valuation concerns.
- Revenue growth is accelerating, gross margins reached 65.1%, and free cash flow turned positive, yet profitability remains elusive.
- Q2 2026 guidance disappointed, triggering a sharp stock decline and highlighting market sensitivity to execution risk.
- AI-driven demand and security/computing revenue growth are promising, but refinancing risk and competition from Cloudflare, Akamai, and hyperscalers remain material.
neutral 2026-05-28 · Gary Alexander
Fastly: Transformation Underway As Margins Rise
- Fastly is delivering robust growth and margin expansion, driven by AI-native products like Fastly Compute and strong security offerings.
- FSLY's consumption-based pricing model shields it from SaaS sector headwinds, supporting rising net retention rates even in a challenging macro environment.
- Security products now comprise 22% of revenue, growing nearly 50% y/y, further diversifying FSLY's growth drivers beyond AI compute.
- I reiterate a "buy" rating, citing improved fundamentals, scalable margins, and a modest valuation with an enterprise value of $2.61 billion.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $20.90 | 80.80 | 46.57 | 73.95 |