전체 #36 · shadow_watch
HIMX · Himax Technologies, Inc.
Semiconductors · Opportunity 61.59, Risk 47.00, Confidence 95.28, Research Rank 59.00; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
59.00
Opportunity
61.59
Risk
47.00
Evidence Confidence
95.28
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$14.12
전일
-1.05%
52주 위치
39.86%
60일 변동성
114.35%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.76 | — |
| sa analyst | HOLD | 2.50 | 2 |
| wall street | BUY | 4.33 | 3 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C | A- | A- |
| growth | B | B | D+ |
| profitability | C- | C | C |
| momentum | A- | B | C+ |
| revisions | A- | D+ | D- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 62.50 | 25% | 15.62 |
| business quality | 58.41 | 20% | 11.68 |
| valuation | 73.52 | 15% | 11.03 |
| price trend | 49.87 | 15% | 7.48 |
| analyst opinion | 71.58 | 12% | 8.59 |
| news sentiment | 52.33 | 8% | 4.19 |
| catalyst | 60.00 | 5% | 3.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 75.70 | 30% | 22.71 |
| expectation valuation | 47.19 | 25% | 11.80 |
| profitability cashflow | 32.23 | 20% | 6.45 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 24.49 | 10% | 2.45 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 1.00 | — | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 1.50 | 50.00% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1 |
| EPS · Dec 2029 | 2.25 | 50.00% | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 933.55M | 12.18% | 915.12M | 951.99M | 2 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 1.16B | 24.33% | 1.15B | 1.17B | 2 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.42B | 21.93% | 1.35B | 1.48B | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | +53.33% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.04 | 0.03 | +20.00% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.01 | 0.01 | +20.00% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | -5.00% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 199013000.00 | 195007000.00 | +2.05% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 203081000.00 | 199161000.00 | +1.97% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 199161000.00 | 186217000.00 | +6.95% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 214798000.00 | 212000000.00 | +1.32% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 77.98 | 26.12 | 198.56% | D- |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 24.75 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 77.92 | 35.16 | 121.62% | D+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 35.68 | 33.20 | 7.45% | C+ |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | NM | 0.89 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 3.44 | 3.78 | -9.01% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 3.01 | 3.50 | -14.06% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 52.10 | 19.53 | 166.74% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 26.42 | 14.72 | 79.52% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 81.38 | 28.14 | 189.18% | D |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | - | 19.40 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 3.05 | 3.68 | -17.05% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 2.67 | 3.37 | -20.88% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 2.72 | 4.06 | -32.86% | B |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 2.92 | 4.69 | -37.59% | B+ |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 28.29 | 19.21 | 47.29% | C- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | 1.77% | 1.15% | 53.30% | B+ |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | -10.75% | 11.36% | NM | D- |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 8.58% | 11.99% | -28.44% | C- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | -43.69% | 14.90% | NM | F |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 24.70% | 18.71% | 32.04% | B- |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | -55.79% | 17.19% | NM | F |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | - | 20.77% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | -63.30% | 17.08% | NM | F |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 23.55% | 17.54% | 34.28% | B |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | -44.74% | 12.73% | NM | D- |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | 23.55% | 17.58% | 33.97% | B- |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | NM | 8.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | - | 17.43% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | -23.67% | 15.41% | NM | D- |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | - | 17.12% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | -62.72% | 3.24% | NM | D- |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | 16.88% | 5.62% | 200.58% | B+ |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | -1.35% | 8.14% | NM | C- |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 14.03% | 13.92% | 0.82% | C+ |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | - | 5.93% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 30.54% | 49.88% | -38.76% | D+ |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 4.23% | 7.61% | -44.48% | C |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 6.60% | 12.07% | -45.33% | C |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 3.91% | 6.07% | -35.56% | C+ |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | -2.22% | 10.88% | NM | D |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 3.50% | 7.52% | -53.41% | C+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 1.45% | 4.63% | -68.64% | C |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 1.85% | 3.32% | -44.36% | C+ |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 2.18% | 2.35% | -7.42% | C+ |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.49x | 0.63x | -22.91% | C- |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 87.99M | 149.24M | -41.04% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 1.49 | 2.34 | -36.35% | C |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 14.52K | 14.03K | 3.50% | B- |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 52.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-05-21 · Bears of Wall Street
Himax Technologies: The Rally Is A Mirage
- Himax Technologies has surged on AI optimism, improved guidance, and rumors of major tech collaborations, but fundamentals lag heightened expectations.
- HIMX’s core display driver business remains highly cyclical, with weak structural improvement and ongoing volatility in key end markets.
- Much of the bullish thesis relies on early-stage AI and optical interconnect products, with commercialization and revenue contributions still years away.
- I assign HIMX a Sell rating, as the current valuation ($19.06/share) far exceeds my intrinsic value estimate of $8.13, leaving minimal margin for error.
neutral 2026-05-20 · Gytis Zizys
Himax Technologies: Still Depends On Core Products, But CPO Looks Very Promising
- Himax Technologies, Inc. reported weak Q1 results but issued strong Q2 guidance, sparking a 56% share price rally.
- HIMX expects Q2 revenues to rise 10–13% and gross margins to expand by 160bps, signaling a likely operational turnaround.
- Automotive Tcon and local-dimming Tcon ramp-up, plus resumed auto demand, are key drivers for sequential improvement.
- Long-term upside hinges on co-packaged optics and wafer-level optics, but operational impact remains unproven; holding is favored over buying HIMX stock at current levels.
neutral 2026-03-15 · Cassiopeia Value Investing
Himax Technologies: The Best Is Yet To Come
- Himax shares surged on rumors of supplying NVIDIA and Apple, tied to next-gen AI data center technology.
- TSMC's Coupe technology, spotlighted for reducing GPU network power consumption, is central to the investment thesis.
- HIMX's WiseEye may be integrated into a leading brand's smart glasses, with mass production expected in 2026.
- Jensen Huang's emphasis on energy efficiency in AI data centers underpins the relevance of HIMX's potential partnerships.
- The valuation of Himax offers an asymmetrical risk/return ratio, which will reward patient investors.
negative 2025-12-08 · Joseph Mwangi
Himax Technologies: The Automotive Segment Is Still A Drag (Rating Downgrade)
- Himax Technologies is downgraded to Hold due to ongoing weakness in its core automotive display IC segment.
- HIMX's Q3 2025 revenues declined 10.5% Y/Y, with all key segments posting lower sales, and profit dropping sharply.
- Automotive display ICs, over half of HIMX's revenue, face low demand visibility and macroeconomic headwinds, limiting near-term growth.
- Non-driver ICs and emerging technologies offer long-term upside, but meaningful gains are likely 2-3 years out.
neutral 2025-12-04 · Denis Doroshenko
Himax Technologies: Hold Until Profitability Stabilizes And Emerging Technologies Contribute Materially
- Himax Technologies (HIMX) is pivoting from commoditized DDICs toward Automotive TDDI and AI sensing (WiseEye) to drive margin expansion and value-chain advancement.
- HIMX currently trades at a 10-25% premium to closest peer Silicon Motion despite weaker growth, higher leverage, and exposure to cyclical, competitive markets.
- Q3 2025 results showed a 10.5% YoY revenue decline, negative operating margin, and management guided for flat Q4 2025, signaling ongoing short-term headwinds.
- I recommend holding until revenue and profitability stabilize and emerging technologies contribute materially, as HIMX appears overvalued relative to peers and faces significant risks.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $14.12 | 61.59 | 47.00 | 59.00 |