전체 #6 · shadow_watch
MITK · Mitek Systems, Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 75.22, Risk 23.69, Confidence 82.04, Research Rank 70.91; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
70.91
Opportunity
75.22
Risk
23.69
Evidence Confidence
82.04
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$18.46
전일
-2.07%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
54.61%
동종 39종목 대비 위치
마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.
기회이 종목 75.22
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 23.69 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 82.04
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 70.91
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 50.67
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33
SA 의견·팩터 등급
의견 · 등급 (1~5)
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수 | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | — | 4.08 | — |
| sa analyst | 매수 | 4.00 | 1 |
| wall street | 강력 매수 | 4.80 | 5 |
팩터 등급 추이
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C+ | B- | B- |
| growth | C | A- | D+ |
| profitability | B+ | B+ | A- |
| momentum | A- | B | A |
| revisions | C+ | C+ | B |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | — | 25% | — |
| business quality | — | 20% | — |
| valuation | — | 15% | — |
| price trend | 74.37 | 15% | 11.16 |
| analyst opinion | 82.32 | 12% | 9.88 |
| news sentiment | 50.67 | 8% | 4.05 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 30.43 | 30% | 9.13 |
| expectation valuation | — | 25% | — |
| profitability cashflow | — | 20% | — |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 9.00 | 10% | 0.90 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Sep 2026 | 1.15 | 20.63% | 1.11 | 1.18 | 5 |
| EPS · Sep 2027 | 1.19 | 4.01% | 1.05 | 1.34 | 5 |
| EPS · Sep 2028 | 1.54 | 29.19% | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1 |
| REVENUE · Sep 2026 | 197.59M | 9.96% | 197.00M | 198.64M | 5 |
| REVENUE · Sep 2027 | 213.75M | 8.18% | 211.71M | 216.18M | 5 |
| REVENUE · Sep 2028 | 231.30M | 8.21% | 231.30M | 231.30M | 1 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q3 | 0.34 | 0.28 | +23.19% |
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.38 | 0.35 | +7.04% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.26 | 0.18 | +42.86% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.24 | 0.18 | +33.33% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q3 | 54.04M | 50.82M | +6.32% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 54.84M | 52.62M | +4.22% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 44.24M | 42.44M | +4.26% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 44.78M | 40.86M | +9.60% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / EBITDA (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Price / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| Revenue Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EBITDA Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Net Income Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Return on Common Equity (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Cash From Operations (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 50.67; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-08-07 · CAN Analyst
마이텍 시스템즈: 3분기 실적이 내 투자 논지를 강화
- Mitek Systems demonstrates accelerating SaaS and Fraud & Identity growth, with Q3 revenue up 18% YoY and robust profitability.
- MITK's SaaS revenue grew 36% YoY, while adjusted EBITDA margin reached 38.5%, signaling a successful transition beyond legacy check products.
- Check Verification Solutions remain resilient, with new strategic value emerging via the Check Fraud Defender network.
- I maintain a buy rating, but current valuation offers limited upside; execution on SaaS growth and cash conversion are key to further gains.
neutral 2026-05-20 · CAN Analyst
Mitek Systems: 저렴하지는 않지만, 겉보기보다 더 나은 사업 구조
- Mitek Systems earns a Buy rating as it transitions from legacy mobile deposit to fraud prevention and identity verification, capitalizing on rising digital security needs.
- Fraud and identity solutions revenue grew 28% YoY in Q2 FY2026, with SaaS revenue up 18%, demonstrating momentum in MITK's modern business segments.
- Strong profitability is evident with Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin at 40.7% and LTM free cash flow of $44.5 million, supported by disciplined cost control.
- FY2026 guidance targets 8% total revenue growth and 17% fraud/identity segment growth, but upside is limited as shares appear fairly valued with only modest potential.
neutral 2026-03-05 · Number Cruncher
Mitek Systems: AI 방어막이 미국 은행 50%를 지키는 방법
- Mitek Systems leverages its bank consortium and AI-driven Check Fraud Defender, creating a robust moat and indispensable value for over 50% of U.S. checking banks.
- MITK's SaaS revenues grew 21% YoY, now 43% of total LTM revenues, supporting a higher valuation as the business shifts from legacy licensing.
- Q1 revenues reached $44.2M (+19% YoY), with Fraud & Identity solutions up 30% YoY and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 30%.
- With 2026 guidance raised, a $17/share valuation implies 15% upside; risks include rapid tech shifts and biometric privacy litigation, but buybacks and SaaS growth underpin the bullish thesis.
neutral 2025-12-15 · Valkyrie Trading Society
Mitek Systems: 라이선스 판매에서 벗어난 SaaS 전환, 마진 압박 지속
- Mitek is seeing some margin pressure as license sales fall off and the revenue model shifts over to SaaS, where margin is more backloaded.
- But underlying markets seem to be generating decent growth, although R&D intensity remains.
- In checks, apparently the declines are due to timing effects related to several years of frontloaded revenue recognition in 2023.
neutral 2025-09-02 · Vince Martin
마이텍 시스템즈, 여전히 가치주 함정에 머물러 있다
- Mitek's bull case is much the same as it has been for years: a stable cash-generating Deposits business is augmented by growth in identity verification.
- On paper, there's a path to 50% upside, and more gains if Mitek becomes a beneficiary of the fight against AI-driven scams.
- But the history of MITK stock and similar plays themselves raises caution; these kinds of stories often have not worked out well.
- Real risks on both sides of the business suggest that it can easily happen again; Mitek still has a tough path from here.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $19.46 | 76.12 | 30.38 | 73.67 |
| 2026-07-16 | $19.33 | 76.13 | 30.25 | 73.71 |
| 2026-07-17 | $19.25 | 76.12 | 30.19 | 73.72 |
| 2026-07-20 | $18.97 | 75.94 | 30.23 | 73.58 |
| 2026-07-21 | $18.70 | 74.29 | 29.99 | 72.44 |
| 2026-07-22 | $18.44 | 73.79 | 25.13 | 69.74 |
| 2026-07-23 | $17.16 | 74.14 | 25.24 | 69.93 |
| 2026-07-24 | $15.91 | 71.86 | 26.85 | 68.20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.87 | 72.29 | 27.27 | 68.38 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.01 | 72.66 | 27.05 | 68.65 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.78 | 70.77 | 27.12 | 67.47 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.73 | 70.47 | 26.95 | 67.32 |
| 2026-07-31 | $17.07 | 70.96 | 26.72 | 67.67 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.70 | 70.94 | 26.77 | 67.65 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.99 | 71.86 | 26.78 | 68.21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $17.72 | 71.98 | 26.97 | 68.25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $17.13 | 71.86 | 27.19 | 68.13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.81 | 71.68 | 27.07 | 68.04 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.49 | 77.88 | 25.68 | 72.14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $18.55 | 75.84 | 25.40 | 70.94 |
| 2026-08-12 | $18.52 | 69.58 | 26.61 | 66.85 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.53 | 71.59 | 25.04 | 68.40 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.18 | 71.06 | 25.00 | 68.09 |
| 2026-08-20 | $18.88 | 71.54 | 25.13 | 68.36 |
| 2026-08-21 | $18.52 | 73.20 | 24.83 | 69.44 |
| 2026-08-24 | $18.56 | 74.10 | 24.77 | 70.01 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.46 | 75.22 | 23.69 | 70.91 |