전체 #12 · shadow_watch
MITK · Mitek Systems, Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 76.12, Risk 30.38, Confidence 96.62, Research Rank 73.67; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
73.67
Opportunity
76.12
Risk
30.38
Evidence Confidence
96.62
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$19.46
전일
0.41%
52주 위치
87.30%
60일 변동성
53.96%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Buy | 4.49 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 4.00 | 1 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.80 | 5 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | B- | B- | B+ |
| growth | A- | B+ | B- |
| profitability | B+ | A- | A- |
| momentum | A | A- | B- |
| revisions | C+ | A | C |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 75.00 | 25% | 18.75 |
| business quality | 76.72 | 20% | 15.34 |
| valuation | 63.58 | 15% | 9.54 |
| price trend | 86.73 | 15% | 13.01 |
| analyst opinion | 85.79 | 12% | 10.29 |
| news sentiment | 52.33 | 8% | 4.19 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 28.24 | 30% | 8.47 |
| expectation valuation | 55.13 | 25% | 13.78 |
| profitability cashflow | 12.50 | 20% | 2.50 |
| negative events | 32.00 | 15% | 4.80 |
| opinion data instability | 8.24 | 10% | 0.82 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Sep 2026 | 1.11 | 17.26% | 1.04 | 1.20 | 5 |
| EPS · Sep 2027 | 1.21 | 8.98% | 1.05 | 1.38 | 5 |
| EPS · Sep 2028 | 1.54 | 26.85% | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1 |
| REVENUE · Sep 2026 | 194.47M | 8.23% | 193.53M | 197.00M | 5 |
| REVENUE · Sep 2027 | 210.74M | 8.36% | 208.94M | 214.10M | 5 |
| REVENUE · Sep 2028 | 231.30M | 9.76% | 231.30M | 231.30M | 1 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.38 | 0.35 | +7.04% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.26 | 0.18 | +42.86% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.24 | 0.18 | +33.33% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.22 | 0.19 | +16.82% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 54841000.00 | 52621500.00 | +4.22% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 44244000.00 | 42437200.00 | +4.26% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 44779000.00 | 40855200.00 | +9.60% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 45729000.00 | 43683400.00 | +4.68% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 17.62 | 26.12 | -32.54% | B |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 17.40 | 24.75 | -29.72% | B |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 56.65 | 35.16 | 61.13% | C- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 46.81 | 33.20 | 40.99% | C- |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | 2.88 | 0.89 | 225.79% | D |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 4.51 | 3.78 | 19.31% | C |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 4.39 | 3.50 | 25.67% | C |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 20.35 | 19.53 | 4.20% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 13.88 | 14.72 | -5.68% | B- |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 30.47 | 28.14 | 8.29% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 28.64 | 19.40 | 47.65% | C- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 4.67 | 3.68 | 26.93% | C |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 4.50 | 3.37 | 33.55% | C |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 3.63 | 4.06 | -10.51% | C+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | - | 4.69 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 18.19 | 19.21 | -5.27% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 6.88% | 11.36% | -39.38% | C- |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 6.99% | 11.99% | -41.70% | D+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 22.85% | 14.90% | 53.35% | B- |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 13.75% | 18.71% | -26.51% | C |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | 49.86% | 17.19% | 190.07% | B+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 148.34% | 20.77% | 614.08% | A+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | 19.64% | 17.08% | 15.01% | C+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 100.48% | 17.54% | 472.89% | A+ |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | 171.43% | 12.73% | 1,246.41% | A |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | 100.48% | 17.58% | 471.57% | A+ |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | -16.48% | 8.54% | NM | D+ |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 12.36% | 17.43% | -29.09% | C- |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | -0.60% | 15.41% | NM | C- |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 15.01% | 17.12% | -12.33% | C |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | 17.97% | 3.24% | 454.69% | B |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | - | 5.62% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 1,055.89% | 8.14% | 12,877.29% | A+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 178.38% | 13.92% | 1,181.40% | A |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | - | 5.93% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 83.50% | 49.88% | 67.42% | A |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 14.79% | 7.61% | 94.40% | B+ |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 22.15% | 12.07% | 83.50% | A- |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 8.74% | 6.07% | 43.86% | B |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 24.58% | 10.88% | 125.88% | A |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 7.21% | 7.52% | -4.16% | B- |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 5.23% | 4.63% | 13.13% | B- |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 4.64% | 3.32% | 39.78% | B |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 1.88% | 2.35% | -19.99% | C |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.48x | 0.63x | -22.98% | C- |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 48.11M | 149.24M | -67.77% | C |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 1.54 | 2.34 | -34.07% | C |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 28.66K | 14.03K | 104.31% | B |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 52.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
positive 2026-05-07 ·
Mitek Systems Non-GAAP EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.03, revenue of $54.8M beats by $2.18M
neutral 2026-04-08 ·
Ichor Holdings tops Seeking Alpha's quant rankings among small-cap tech stocks ahead of Q1 earnings
neutral 2026-02-11 ·
Top small-cap information technology stocks surging above 200-Day moving average
negative 2026-02-06 ·
Mitek signals $187M–$197M revenue target for fiscal 2026 as fraud and identity growth accelerates
positive 2026-02-05 ·
Mitek Systems Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.08, revenue of $44.2M beats by $1.76M
negative 2025-12-11 ·
Mitek outlines 15% fraud and identity revenue growth target for fiscal 2026 as SaaS mix rises
positive 2025-12-11 ·
Mitek Systems Non-GAAP EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.06, revenue of $44.8M beats by $3.94M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-05-20 · CAN Analyst
Mitek Systems: Not A Cheap Stock, But A Better Business Than It Looks
- Mitek Systems earns a Buy rating as it transitions from legacy mobile deposit to fraud prevention and identity verification, capitalizing on rising digital security needs.
- Fraud and identity solutions revenue grew 28% YoY in Q2 FY2026, with SaaS revenue up 18%, demonstrating momentum in MITK's modern business segments.
- Strong profitability is evident with Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin at 40.7% and LTM free cash flow of $44.5 million, supported by disciplined cost control.
- FY2026 guidance targets 8% total revenue growth and 17% fraud/identity segment growth, but upside is limited as shares appear fairly valued with only modest potential.
neutral 2026-03-05 · Number Cruncher
Mitek Systems: How Its AI Fortress Protects 50% Of U.S. Banks
- Mitek Systems leverages its bank consortium and AI-driven Check Fraud Defender, creating a robust moat and indispensable value for over 50% of U.S. checking banks.
- MITK's SaaS revenues grew 21% YoY, now 43% of total LTM revenues, supporting a higher valuation as the business shifts from legacy licensing.
- Q1 revenues reached $44.2M (+19% YoY), with Fraud & Identity solutions up 30% YoY and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 30%.
- With 2026 guidance raised, a $17/share valuation implies 15% upside; risks include rapid tech shifts and biometric privacy litigation, but buybacks and SaaS growth underpin the bullish thesis.
neutral 2025-12-15 · Valkyrie Trading Society
Mitek Systems: Shift Away From License Sales Pressuring Margin
- Mitek is seeing some margin pressure as license sales fall off and the revenue model shifts over to SaaS, where margin is more backloaded.
- But underlying markets seem to be generating decent growth, although R&D intensity remains.
- In checks, apparently the declines are due to timing effects related to several years of frontloaded revenue recognition in 2023.
neutral 2025-09-02 · Vince Martin
Mitek Systems Still Looks Like A Value Trap
- Mitek's bull case is much the same as it has been for years: a stable cash-generating Deposits business is augmented by growth in identity verification.
- On paper, there's a path to 50% upside, and more gains if Mitek becomes a beneficiary of the fight against AI-driven scams.
- But the history of MITK stock and similar plays themselves raises caution; these kinds of stories often have not worked out well.
- Real risks on both sides of the business suggest that it can easily happen again; Mitek still has a tough path from here.
negative 2025-03-27 · Crescent Value Research
Mitek Systems: Future Growth Seems Limited (Rating Downgrade)
- I initially recommended Mitek Systems due to its profitability, growth potential, and expected resolution of temporary issues, but the stock has underperformed significantly.
- A sudden CEO termination and lower pricing in the identity verification business revealed deeper issues, leading me to sell my position in August 2024.
- Despite recent positive steps, including new leadership and improved earnings, I remain skeptical about MITK stock's ability to generate sufficient growth and profitability.
- Key lessons: Sudden CEO changes require deeper scrutiny, and understanding industry pricing dynamics is crucial for growth investing.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $19.46 | 76.12 | 30.38 | 73.67 |