전체 #4 · shadow_watch
PGY · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
Application Software · Opportunity 83.30, Risk 44.84, Confidence 85.42, Research Rank 72.44; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
72.44
Opportunity
83.30
Risk
44.84
Evidence Confidence
85.42
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$21.74
전일
-1.09%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
67.96%
동종 39종목 대비 위치
마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.
기회이 종목 83.30
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 44.84 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 85.42
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 72.44
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 50.00
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33
SA 의견·팩터 등급
의견 · 등급 (1~5)
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수 | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | — | 4.93 | — |
| sa analyst | 강력 매수 | 4.66 | 6 |
| wall street | 강력 매수 | 4.80 | 10 |
팩터 등급 추이
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | A+ | A+ | A+ |
| growth | A+ | A+ | A+ |
| profitability | B+ | B+ | B+ |
| momentum | A | D+ | D- |
| revisions | A+ | B | D- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | — | 25% | — |
| business quality | — | 20% | — |
| valuation | — | 15% | — |
| price trend | 86.23 | 15% | 12.93 |
| analyst opinion | 94.89 | 12% | 11.39 |
| news sentiment | 50.00 | 8% | 4.00 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 71.30 | 30% | 21.39 |
| expectation valuation | — | 25% | — |
| profitability cashflow | — | 20% | — |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 2.72 | 10% | 0.27 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 3.72 | 12.41% | 3.39 | 3.95 | 9 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 4.07 | 9.41% | 3.74 | 4.28 | 9 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 4.70 | 15.42% | 4.64 | 4.76 | 2 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 1.47B | 13.00% | 1.45B | 1.50B | 10 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 1.69B | 15.25% | 1.63B | 1.79B | 10 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.92B | 13.57% | 1.90B | 1.95B | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 1.07 | 0.72 | +48.02% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.73 | 0.56 | +29.44% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.80 | 0.77 | +4.37% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 1.02 | 0.66 | +54.85% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 387.04M | 357.11M | +8.38% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 317.94M | 323.84M | -1.82% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 334.81M | 349.51M | -4.21% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 350.17M | 338.86M | +3.34% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / EBITDA (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Price / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| Revenue Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EBITDA Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Net Income Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Return on Common Equity (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Cash From Operations (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 50.00; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-08-19 · Akim Guerreiro
파가야 테크놀로지스: 주가수익비율 6.6배에 거래되는 고성장 산업 혁신 기업
- Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is my highest conviction GARP holding, rated Strong Buy, now representing 25% of my portfolio.
- PGY has transitioned from high growth but unprofitable to profitable, with six consecutive quarters of profitability and accelerating network volume.
- Q2 2026 results showed a network volume of $3.54B (vs. $2.97B estimate), +19% revenue, +99% adjusted net income, and -6% core operating expenses.
- Despite rapid EPS growth and margin expansion, PGY trades at a depressed 2026E PE of 5.6x, with risk mitigated by a strong balance sheet and aligned insider ownership.
neutral 2026-08-18 · The Curious Analyst
파가야 테크놀로지스: 목표주가는 낮아졌지만 사업은 개선 중
- I'm reiterating Pagaya Technologies as a Strong Buy, with the price target adjusted to $67 due to higher share count and net debt.
- Q2 2026 results validate PGY's AI-driven lending platform, showing 33% network volume growth, 43% adjusted EBITDA growth, and expanding operating leverage.
- Core operating expenses declined 6% while network volume surged, driving adjusted EBITDA margin to 32% and reinforcing confidence in scalable profitability.
- Key risks include retained credit exposure and FRLPC margin compression, but the current 15x FWD EV/EBITDA multiple is maintained given robust operating performance.
neutral 2026-08-11 · Ryan Canady
파가야: 자동차 대출서 깨어난 수익 창출 엔진, 아직 잠든 월가 - 강력 매수
- Pagaya continues its transformation into a deeply integrated player across the loan approval process, driving partner entrenchment and influence over loan quality.
- Q2 2026 saw a record network volume of $3.5B (+33% YoY), with auto lending accounting for over 75% of growth and auto loan volume up 140% YoY.
- The company's profit and volume growth outpaced revenue, while operating expenses remained nearly flat, underscoring strong operating leverage and scalable technology.
- Despite recent stock appreciation, Pagaya trades at a significant discount to peers on P/E, P/S (1.553x), and EV/EBITDA, supporting a continued strong buy rating.
neutral 2026-08-09 · Daniel James
파가야: AI가 소비자 신용을 인프라로 바꾸고 있다
- Pagaya Technologies is rated Buy due to strong operating leverage, robust growth, and a valuation that over-discounts credit and funding risks.
- PGY’s platform embeds AI-driven underwriting within banks and fintechs, enabling scalable lending expansion with minimal incremental costs and reduced reliance on direct loan origination.
- Q2 results showcased 33% network volume growth, 43% EBITDA growth, nearly doubled GAAP operating income, and flat core operating expenses, highlighting efficiency and scalability.
- Risks include exposure to consumer credit cycles, ABS market disruptions, and FRLPC margin compression, but the platform’s increasing adoption and self-funding capacity support the bullish thesis.
neutral 2026-07-09 · Jason Ditz
마진 개선과 고객사 증가로 저평가된 파가야 테크놀로지스, 시장의 관심 밖에 놓인 가치주로 부상하다
- Pagaya Technologies leverages proprietary AI for underwriting, driving strong cash flow and margin expansion with minimal incremental CapEx.
- PGY trades at a compelling forward P/E of 5.90, well below sector medians, as GAAP profitability and cash flow accelerate on growing client adoption.
- Free cash flow is used to pay down debt and build cash reserves, positioning PGY for future shareholder returns as leverage declines.
- I rate PGY a buy, but caution that rising AI competition and potential credit cycle risks warrant close monitoring of growth durability.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $18.27 | 82.25 | 39.51 | 76.81 |
| 2026-07-16 | $18.27 | 82.17 | 39.62 | 76.72 |
| 2026-07-17 | $17.49 | 75.95 | 39.65 | 71.41 |
| 2026-07-20 | $17.15 | 81.79 | 39.52 | 76.46 |
| 2026-07-21 | $17.09 | 80.41 | 39.49 | 75.43 |
| 2026-07-22 | $17.48 | 72.78 | 46.40 | 65.36 |
| 2026-07-23 | $16.86 | 67.40 | 46.22 | 61.95 |
| 2026-07-24 | $16.26 | 66.53 | 46.33 | 61.37 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.89 | 65.98 | 46.34 | 61.02 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.96 | 66.78 | 46.61 | 61.47 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.61 | 66.22 | 46.35 | 61.17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.19 | 65.34 | 46.37 | 60.60 |
| 2026-07-31 | $17.64 | 69.79 | 46.96 | 63.33 |
| 2026-08-03 | $19.27 | 71.86 | 47.60 | 64.52 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.23 | 75.91 | 49.09 | 66.80 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.92 | 75.04 | 49.15 | 66.22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.80 | 75.73 | 49.13 | 66.67 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.42 | 76.40 | 48.93 | 67.14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.28 | 76.24 | 48.43 | 67.14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $21.60 | 75.48 | 48.42 | 66.66 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.20 | 77.63 | 48.47 | 68.03 |
| 2026-08-18 | $20.93 | 83.23 | 48.43 | 71.63 |
| 2026-08-19 | $20.32 | 82.10 | 48.47 | 70.89 |
| 2026-08-20 | $20.47 | 82.66 | 47.72 | 71.41 |
| 2026-08-21 | $20.24 | 82.94 | 47.41 | 71.66 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.68 | 86.02 | 47.71 | 73.57 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.74 | 83.30 | 44.84 | 72.44 |