전체 #3 · selected
PGY · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
Application Software · Opportunity 82.25, Risk 39.51, Confidence 100.00, Research Rank 76.81; 상위 10 및 업종 다양성 통과
Research Rank
76.81
Opportunity
82.25
Risk
39.51
Evidence Confidence
100.00
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$18.27
전일
3.87%
52주 위치
22.75%
60일 변동성
69.15%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.58 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 4.37 | 8 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.80 | 10 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | A+ | A+ | B+ |
| growth | A+ | A+ | A+ |
| profitability | B | B | C- |
| momentum | C | D- | A- |
| revisions | A- | D | B- |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 100.00 | 25% | 25.00 |
| business quality | 75.75 | 20% | 15.15 |
| valuation | 89.06 | 15% | 13.36 |
| price trend | 55.92 | 15% | 8.39 |
| analyst opinion | 89.61 | 12% | 10.75 |
| news sentiment | 57.50 | 8% | 4.60 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 71.89 | 30% | 21.57 |
| expectation valuation | 34.76 | 25% | 8.69 |
| profitability cashflow | 26.07 | 20% | 5.21 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 4.39 | 10% | 0.44 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 3.06 | -7.52% | 2.77 | 3.23 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 3.53 | 15.45% | 3.27 | 3.83 | 7 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 3.81 | 7.76% | 3.31 | 4.31 | 2 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 1.47B | 13.34% | 1.45B | 1.52B | 10 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 1.69B | 14.39% | 1.55B | 1.83B | 9 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 1.89B | 11.96% | 1.85B | 1.93B | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.73 | 0.56 | +29.44% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.80 | 0.77 | +4.37% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 1.02 | 0.66 | +54.85% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.64 | 0.67 | -5.04% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 317944000.00 | 323840290.00 | -1.82% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 334808000.00 | 349513580.00 | -4.21% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 350165000.00 | 338863440.00 | +3.34% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 326398000.00 | 324854830.00 | +0.47% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 5.51 | 26.12 | -78.89% | A+ |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 5.75 | 24.75 | -76.78% | A+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | 16.06 | 35.16 | -54.32% | A- |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 12.72 | 33.20 | -61.68% | A |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | NM | 0.89 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | 0.05 | 1.35 | -96.54% | A+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 0.92 | 3.78 | -75.58% | A |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 0.83 | 3.50 | -76.22% | A |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 4.05 | 19.53 | -79.24% | A+ |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 2.83 | 14.72 | -80.80% | A+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 4.14 | 28.14 | -85.28% | A+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 3.52 | 19.40 | -81.84% | A+ |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 1.06 | 3.68 | -71.18% | A- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 0.99 | 3.37 | -70.67% | A- |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 2.75 | 4.06 | -32.20% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 2.47 | 4.69 | -47.20% | B+ |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 5.89 | 19.21 | -69.32% | A |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 23.43% | 11.36% | 106.31% | B+ |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 17.80% | 11.99% | 48.48% | B |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | 174.98% | 14.90% | 1,074.15% | A+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 34.29% | 18.71% | 83.31% | A- |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | 176.94% | 17.19% | 929.36% | A |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 82.90% | 20.77% | 299.04% | A+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | 123.00% | 18.92% | 550.18% | A+ |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | 44.28% | 8.54% | 418.68% | B+ |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | - | 17.43% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | 283.71% | 15.41% | 1,741.57% | A+ |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 76.54% | 17.12% | 347.03% | A |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | 35.04% | 5.62% | 523.93% | A- |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 726.14% | 8.14% | 8,824.60% | A+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 79.02% | 13.92% | 467.66% | A- |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | NM | 5.93% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 42.85% | 49.88% | -14.08% | C- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 22.28% | 7.61% | 192.75% | A |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 22.75% | 12.07% | 88.48% | A- |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | 7.39% | 6.07% | 21.63% | B- |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 13.96% | 10.88% | 28.27% | B- |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | 21.74% | 7.52% | 189.06% | A- |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 13.46% | 4.63% | 190.91% | A |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | 5.96% | 3.32% | 79.39% | B |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 2.20% | 2.35% | -6.24% | C+ |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.91x | 0.63x | 44.33% | B+ |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 247.38M | 149.24M | 65.75% | B |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 3.84 | 2.34 | 64.15% | B |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | 192.15K | 14.03K | 1,269.95% | A |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 57.50; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-05-07 ·
Pagaya forecasts $110M-$160M in 2026 GAAP net income while naming Jon Dobres CFO
positive 2026-05-07 ·
Pagaya stock jumps after Q1 earnings beat, Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance, CFO transition
neutral 2026-05-07 ·
Pagaya Technologies Non-GAAP EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.17, revenue of $317.94M misses by $5.9M
neutral 2026-02-09 ·
Pagaya outlines $1.4B–$1.575B 2026 revenue guidance as it shifts focus to risk management and partner growth
neutral 2026-02-09 ·
Earnings Snapshot: Pagaya Technologies Q1 revenue, adjusted EBITA lag estimates; Q4 network volume rises 3% Y/Y
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-07-09 · Jason Ditz
Better Margins, Growing Client List Make Pagaya Technologies An Overlooked Value Stock
- Pagaya Technologies leverages proprietary AI for underwriting, driving strong cash flow and margin expansion with minimal incremental CapEx.
- PGY trades at a compelling forward P/E of 5.90, well below sector medians, as GAAP profitability and cash flow accelerate on growing client adoption.
- Free cash flow is used to pay down debt and build cash reserves, positioning PGY for future shareholder returns as leverage declines.
- I rate PGY a buy, but caution that rising AI competition and potential credit cycle risks warrant close monitoring of growth durability.
neutral 2026-07-08 · The J Thesis
Pagaya Technologies: Undervalued With Multiple Tailwinds Converging
- Pagaya Technologies remains a volatile but compelling undervalued fintech with a 32% surge since my last coverage.
- I maintain a Strong Buy rating, citing robust revenue growth, multi-year sector tailwinds, and significant undervaluation versus peers.
- PGY trades at a forward P/E of 6x and a PEG of 0.05, reflecting a steep discount to sector medians.
- Risks include persistent volatility and potential for sentiment-driven swings, but long-term fundamentals and catalysts support continued upside.
positive 2026-06-30 · Ryan Canady
Pagaya: Why The Expanded Upgrade Partnership Opens The Door To More Growth
- Pagaya Tchnologies, Ltd. (PGY) expands its partnership with Upgrade, integrating AI underwriting into Upgrade’s Flex Pay BNPL product, broadening its reach beyond personal loans.
- This partnership and product diversification mark a strategic pivot as PGY’s personal loan segment matures, with management now targeting new asset classes for growth.
- PGY’s AI-driven expansion into auto lending and BNPL demonstrates effective risk management and supports consistent credit performance across diversified lending verticals.
- Strong investor confidence is evidenced by PGY’s recent upsized $800 million AAA-rated ABS transaction, reflecting robust credit standing and profitability.
positive 2026-05-29 · Bashar Issa
Pagaya: This AI Antithesis Might Be Undervalued (Rating Upgrade)
- Pagaya Technologies Ltd. overstates its AI-driven underwriting capabilities, raising concerns about management credibility and business model sustainability.
- PGY has improved its risk posture, but its profitability record remains short and should not yet be treated as through-the-cycle proof.
- The company’s retained investment portfolio and large credit-loss allowance remain key risks, even after recent improvement.
- Despite these concerns, PGY stock appears undervalued after applying a higher discount rate to account for execution, credit, and transparency risks.
neutral 2026-05-29 · Ryan Canady
Pagaya Has Delivered Five Straight Profitable Quarters, So Why Is Nearly 20% Of The Float Still Short?
- Pagaya (PGY) has delivered five consecutive quarters of consistent profitability, dispelling prior skepticism about its business model.
- Despite coming in under analyst revenue expectations for Q1 2026, PGY's sustained profitability marks a significant shift in investor expectations.
- The 19.55% short interest appears increasingly vulnerable given PGY's demonstrated operational progress and earnings consistency.
- Profitability is now the baseline expectation for PGY, not merely an aspirational target.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $18.27 | 82.25 | 39.51 | 76.81 |