전체 #4 · shadow_watch

PGY · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

Application Software · Opportunity 83.30, Risk 44.84, Confidence 85.42, Research Rank 72.44; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
72.44
Opportunity
83.30
Risk
44.84
Evidence Confidence
85.42

가격 위치와 추세

현재가
$21.74
전일
-1.09%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
67.96%
구간 고가 43.81저가 10.64

동종 39종목 대비 위치

마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.

기회이 종목 83.30
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 44.84 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 85.42
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 72.44
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 50.00
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33

SA 의견·팩터 등급

의견 · 등급 (1~5)

의견등급점수인원
quant4.93
sa analyst강력 매수4.666
wall street강력 매수4.8010

팩터 등급 추이

팩터현재3개월 전6개월 전
valuationA+A+A+
growthA+A+A+
profitabilityB+B+B+
momentumAD+D-
revisionsA+BD-

점수 산식 분해

Opportunity

가중치기여
estimates revisions25%
business quality20%
valuation15%
price trend86.2315% 12.93
analyst opinion94.8912% 11.39
news sentiment50.008% 4.00
catalyst100.005% 5.00

Risk

가중치기여
price volatility drawdown71.3030% 21.39
expectation valuation25%
profitability cashflow20%
negative events20.0015% 3.00
opinion data instability2.7210% 0.27

실적 추정치

종류·기간추정YoYLowHigh애널리스트
EPS · Dec 20263.7212.41%3.393.959
EPS · Dec 20274.079.41%3.744.289
EPS · Dec 20284.7015.42%4.644.762
REVENUE · Dec 20261.47B13.00%1.45B1.50B10
REVENUE · Dec 20271.69B15.25%1.63B1.79B10
REVENUE · Dec 20281.92B13.57%1.90B1.95B2

최근 어닝 서프라이즈

종류·분기실제컨센서스서프라이즈
EPS · FY2026Q21.070.72+48.02%
EPS · FY2026Q10.730.56+29.44%
EPS · FY2025Q40.800.77+4.37%
EPS · FY2025Q31.020.66+54.85%
Revenue · FY2026Q2387.04M357.11M+8.38%
Revenue · FY2026Q1317.94M323.84M-1.82%
Revenue · FY2025Q4334.81M349.51M-4.21%
Revenue · FY2025Q3350.17M338.86M+3.34%

종목 vs 섹터 근거

영역지표종목섹터차이등급
valuationP/E Non-GAAP (FWD)NOT COVERED
PEG Non-GAAP (FWD)NOT COVERED
EV / Sales (FWD)NOT COVERED
EV / EBITDA (FWD)NOT COVERED
Price / Sales (FWD)NOT COVERED
growthRevenue Growth (YoY)NOT COVERED
Revenue Growth (FWD)NOT COVERED
EPS Diluted Growth (FWD)NOT COVERED
EBITDA Growth (FWD)NOT COVERED
Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD)NOT COVERED
profitabilityGross Profit Margin (TTM)NOT COVERED
EBITDA Margin (TTM)NOT COVERED
Net Income Margin (TTM)NOT COVERED
Return on Common Equity (TTM)NOT COVERED
Cash From Operations (TTM)NOT COVERED

뉴스 10건

제목 기반 감성 50.00; 원문 링크로 근거 확인

neutral 2026-08-31

퀀트 등급이 가장 높고 낮은 소형 기술주

neutral 2026-08-03

파가야 테크놀로지스, 9% 상승…지난주 실적 발표 후 랠리 이어가

neutral 2026-07-30

파가야 테크놀로지스, 네트워크 거래량 성장에 2분기 실적 예상 대폭 상회하며 주가 급등

neutral 2026-07-30

파가야 테크놀로지스, 매출·순이익 전망치 상회…3분기 및 연간 전망 제시

neutral 2026-07-29

파가야 테크놀로지스 2026년 2분기 실적 프리뷰

neutral 2026-07-27

파가야, 개인대출 ABS 거래 규모 9억 달러로 확대

neutral 2026-05-07

파가야, 2026년 GAAP 순이익 1억 1천만~1억 6천만 달러 전망… 존 도브레스(Jon Dobres) CFO 선임

neutral 2026-05-07

파가야, 1분기 실적 서프라이즈·2분기 조정 EBITDA 가이던스·CFO 교체 소식에 주가 급등

neutral 2026-05-07

파가야 테크놀로지스(Pagaya Technologies) 비GAAP EPS 0.73달러, 예상치 0.17달러 상회, 매출 3억1794만 달러로 590만 달러 하회

neutral 2026-02-09

파가야, 2026년 매출 가이던스 14억~15.75억 달러 제시... 리스크 관리·파트너 성장에 초점 전환

분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장

neutral 2026-08-19 · Akim Guerreiro

파가야 테크놀로지스: 주가수익비율 6.6배에 거래되는 고성장 산업 혁신 기업

  • Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is my highest conviction GARP holding, rated Strong Buy, now representing 25% of my portfolio.
  • PGY has transitioned from high growth but unprofitable to profitable, with six consecutive quarters of profitability and accelerating network volume.
  • Q2 2026 results showed a network volume of $3.54B (vs. $2.97B estimate), +19% revenue, +99% adjusted net income, and -6% core operating expenses.
  • Despite rapid EPS growth and margin expansion, PGY trades at a depressed 2026E PE of 5.6x, with risk mitigated by a strong balance sheet and aligned insider ownership.
neutral 2026-08-18 · The Curious Analyst

파가야 테크놀로지스: 목표주가는 낮아졌지만 사업은 개선 중

  • I'm reiterating Pagaya Technologies as a Strong Buy, with the price target adjusted to $67 due to higher share count and net debt.
  • Q2 2026 results validate PGY's AI-driven lending platform, showing 33% network volume growth, 43% adjusted EBITDA growth, and expanding operating leverage.
  • Core operating expenses declined 6% while network volume surged, driving adjusted EBITDA margin to 32% and reinforcing confidence in scalable profitability.
  • Key risks include retained credit exposure and FRLPC margin compression, but the current 15x FWD EV/EBITDA multiple is maintained given robust operating performance.
neutral 2026-08-11 · Ryan Canady

파가야: 자동차 대출서 깨어난 수익 창출 엔진, 아직 잠든 월가 - 강력 매수

  • Pagaya continues its transformation into a deeply integrated player across the loan approval process, driving partner entrenchment and influence over loan quality.
  • Q2 2026 saw a record network volume of $3.5B (+33% YoY), with auto lending accounting for over 75% of growth and auto loan volume up 140% YoY.
  • The company's profit and volume growth outpaced revenue, while operating expenses remained nearly flat, underscoring strong operating leverage and scalable technology.
  • Despite recent stock appreciation, Pagaya trades at a significant discount to peers on P/E, P/S (1.553x), and EV/EBITDA, supporting a continued strong buy rating.
neutral 2026-08-09 · Daniel James

파가야: AI가 소비자 신용을 인프라로 바꾸고 있다

  • Pagaya Technologies is rated Buy due to strong operating leverage, robust growth, and a valuation that over-discounts credit and funding risks.
  • PGY’s platform embeds AI-driven underwriting within banks and fintechs, enabling scalable lending expansion with minimal incremental costs and reduced reliance on direct loan origination.
  • Q2 results showcased 33% network volume growth, 43% EBITDA growth, nearly doubled GAAP operating income, and flat core operating expenses, highlighting efficiency and scalability.
  • Risks include exposure to consumer credit cycles, ABS market disruptions, and FRLPC margin compression, but the platform’s increasing adoption and self-funding capacity support the bullish thesis.
neutral 2026-07-09 · Jason Ditz

마진 개선과 고객사 증가로 저평가된 파가야 테크놀로지스, 시장의 관심 밖에 놓인 가치주로 부상하다

  • Pagaya Technologies leverages proprietary AI for underwriting, driving strong cash flow and margin expansion with minimal incremental CapEx.
  • PGY trades at a compelling forward P/E of 5.90, well below sector medians, as GAAP profitability and cash flow accelerate on growing client adoption.
  • Free cash flow is used to pay down debt and build cash reserves, positioning PGY for future shareholder returns as leverage declines.
  • I rate PGY a buy, but caution that rising AI competition and potential credit cycle risks warrant close monitoring of growth durability.

일별 트래킹

날짜가격기회위험Rank
2026-07-15$18.2782.2539.5176.81
2026-07-16$18.2782.1739.6276.72
2026-07-17$17.4975.9539.6571.41
2026-07-20$17.1581.7939.5276.46
2026-07-21$17.0980.4139.4975.43
2026-07-22$17.4872.7846.4065.36
2026-07-23$16.8667.4046.2261.95
2026-07-24$16.2666.5346.3361.37
2026-07-27$15.8965.9846.3461.02
2026-07-28$16.9666.7846.6161.47
2026-07-29$16.6166.2246.3561.17
2026-07-30$16.1965.3446.3760.60
2026-07-31$17.6469.7946.9663.33
2026-08-03$19.2771.8647.6064.52
2026-08-04$22.2375.9149.0966.80
2026-08-05$21.9275.0449.1566.22
2026-08-06$21.8075.7349.1366.67
2026-08-07$21.4276.4048.9367.14
2026-08-10$21.2876.2448.4367.14
2026-08-11$21.6075.4848.4266.66
2026-08-12$21.2077.6348.4768.03
2026-08-18$20.9383.2348.4371.63
2026-08-19$20.3282.1048.4770.89
2026-08-20$20.4782.6647.7271.41
2026-08-21$20.2482.9447.4171.66
2026-08-24$21.6886.0247.7173.57
2026-09-01$21.7483.3044.8472.44