전체 #6 · shadow_watch
PRCH · Porch Group, Inc.
Application Software · Opportunity 81.02, Risk 39.77, Confidence 97.97, Research Rank 75.30; 점수 경계는 통과했으나 Application Software 업종 상한 3개 적용
Research Rank
75.30
Opportunity
81.02
Risk
39.77
Evidence Confidence
97.97
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$13.75
전일
2.54%
52주 위치
56.52%
60일 변동성
72.44%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.83 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 4.00 | 1 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.71 | 7 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | B- | B- | C- |
| growth | A+ | A+ | B+ |
| profitability | C | D | D |
| momentum | A- | D+ | C+ |
| revisions | A- | D+ | D |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 87.50 | 25% | 21.88 |
| business quality | 79.19 | 20% | 15.84 |
| valuation | 70.31 | 15% | 10.55 |
| price trend | 86.85 | 15% | 13.03 |
| analyst opinion | 87.86 | 12% | 10.54 |
| news sentiment | 52.33 | 8% | 4.19 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 67.71 | 30% | 20.31 |
| expectation valuation | 49.76 | 25% | 12.44 |
| profitability cashflow | 12.50 | 20% | 2.50 |
| negative events | 24.00 | 15% | 3.60 |
| opinion data instability | 9.18 | 10% | 0.92 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | -0.04 | -33.33% | -0.12 | 0.01 | 4 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 0.13 | — | -0.01 | 0.22 | 4 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 501.76M | 19.78% | 500.00M | 506.00M | 7 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 584.24M | 16.44% | 563.82M | 602.90M | 7 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 687.30M | 17.64% | 687.30M | 687.30M | 1 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | -0.04 | -0.11 | +64.29% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | -0.03 | -0.07 | +55.88% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -118.77% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.02 | -0.11 | +117.19% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 109438000.00 | 96487860.00 | +13.42% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 112253000.00 | 108925380.00 | +3.06% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 115074000.00 | 114415290.00 | +0.58% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 107018000.00 | 98064200.00 | +9.13% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | - | 26.12 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 24.75 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | NM | 35.16 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | NM | 33.20 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | - | 0.89 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | - | 1.35 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 3.48 | 3.78 | -8.03% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 3.45 | 3.50 | -1.22% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 23.69 | 19.53 | 21.28% | C |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 16.39 | 14.72 | 11.34% | C+ |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 34.93 | 28.14 | 24.14% | C |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 31.89 | 19.40 | 64.43% | D+ |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 2.82 | 3.68 | -23.38% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 2.92 | 3.37 | -13.23% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | NM | 4.06 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | - | 4.69 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 16.19 | 19.21 | -15.70% | B- |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | 16.77% | 11.36% | 47.67% | B |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 10.09% | 11.99% | -15.80% | C |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | NM | 14.90% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 170.51% | 18.71% | 811.57% | A+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.19% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | NM | 20.77% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.58% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | - | 18.92% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | NM | 8.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | NM | 17.43% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | NM | 15.41% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | NM | 17.12% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | - | 5.62% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 11.75% | 8.14% | 44.41% | C+ |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | 3.29% | 13.92% | -76.36% | C |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | - | 5.93% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 73.25% | 49.88% | 46.87% | B+ |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 9.95% | 7.61% | 30.73% | B |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 14.67% | 12.07% | 21.54% | B |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | -3.30% | 6.07% | NM | C- |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | 8.62% | 10.88% | -20.74% | C |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | NM | 7.52% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 7.73% | 4.63% | 67.11% | B+ |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | -2.04% | 3.32% | NM | C- |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 0.11% | 2.35% | -95.18% | F |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 0.62x | 0.63x | -1.47% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 90.62M | 149.24M | -39.28% | C+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 1.61 | 2.34 | -31.04% | C |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | -20.56K | 14.03K | NM | C- |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 52.33; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
positive 2026-04-28 ·
Porch targets $103M-$109M 2026 adjusted EBITDA as it raises revenue outlook to $495M-$507M
neutral 2026-04-28 ·
Porch Group GAAP EPS of -$0.04 beats by $0.07, revenue of $121.12M beats by $24.63M
positive 2026-02-11 ·
Porch Group targets $600M premium and $100M EBITDA for 2026 as insurance growth accelerates
neutral 2026-02-11 ·
Porch Group GAAP EPS of -$0.03 beats by $0.04, revenue of $124.3M beats by $15.17M
neutral 2025-11-05 ·
Porch Group targets $70M adjusted EBITDA for 2025 as surplus expands by $113M quarter-over-quarter
negative 2025-11-05 ·
Porch Group GAAP EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.05, revenue of $118.08M beats by $3.66M
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-05-08 · Sanjay Swamy
Porch Group: The Reciprocal Fee Model The Market Is Still Mispricing
- Porch Group has transitioned to a fee-and-commission manager model, structurally mirroring Erie Indemnity, but trades at a significant valuation discount.
- Q1 2026 results validate the new model: RWP is up 18% YoY, Insurance Services revenue is up 50%, and Adj EBITDA margin is at 18%, with raised full-year guidance.
- PRCH’s capital base supports substantial premium growth, with reinsurance costs declining 20% and capacity far exceeding near-term targets.
- The 2028 convertible refinancing poses dilution risk, but Home Factors data offers significant optional upside beyond the $12 price target.
neutral 2026-03-30 · Tech and Growth
Porch Group: Promising Texas Market Expansion
- Porch Group remains a Buy with a $7.6 price target, projecting 12% upside by year-end.
- Insurance Services, now nearly 70% of revenue, drives high-margin growth and improved profitability; Q4 revenue grew 24% YoY.
- The Texas launch of Porch Insurance and data-driven pricing are expected to fuel 20% insurance business growth into 2026.
- Risks include potential housing market stagnation from higher-for-longer interest rates, but risk-adjusted return remains attractive.
positive 2025-12-04 · First Principles Partners
Porch Group: Expanding Insurance Data Platform Positions It For Long-Term Growth
- Porch Group is bullishly rated, driven by its expanded Home Factors property intelligence platform now covering 90% of U.S. homes with over 100 attributes.
- PRCH’s AI-driven data expansion enhances underwriting precision, risk segmentation, and carrier value, with YTD risk metrics and ROI showing marked improvement.
- Despite flat revenue growth, PRCH’s profitability is turning around, with improved adjusted EBITDA and a low P/S ratio relative to peers supporting an attractive entry point.
- Key risks include overreliance on proprietary data accuracy and execution risk in AI-driven underwriting, requiring close monitoring of validation protocols and model governance.
neutral 2025-09-22 · Tangerine Tan Capital
Porch Group: Increased By 1,000% In A Year, And Its Valuation Is Still Reasonable
- Porch Group has transformed its business model, shifting to high-margin fee generation and delivering positive net income.
- Q2/25 results featured a double beat, significant gross margin expansion, and improved profitability after exiting weather insurance and selling Homeowners of America.
- PRCH is fairly valued with further upside, trading at an estimated 2026 P/E of 10-15x, and could benefit from lower interest rates.
neutral 2025-09-12 · Grassroots Trading
Porch Group: Profitability Is Here, Now The Hard Part Starts
- Porch Group, Inc. maintains strong momentum, driven by a shift to a high-margin, fee-based insurance model and disciplined cost control.
- PRCH delivered impressive Q2 results: 83% gross margin, $15.6M adjusted EBITDA, and positive operating cash flow, validating its profitability strategy.
- Management raised 2025 guidance and expanded distribution, but PRCH trades at a premium valuation (31x EV/EBITDA), requiring continued profit growth.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $13.75 | 81.02 | 39.77 | 75.30 |