전체 #34 · shadow_watch
UCTT · Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment · Opportunity 60.25, Risk 54.10, Confidence 82.04, Research Rank 55.47; 현재 선정 경계 64.72 미만
Research Rank
55.47
Opportunity
60.25
Risk
54.10
Evidence Confidence
82.04
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$67.83
전일
-2.37%
52주 위치
60일 변동성
121.07%
동종 39종목 대비 위치
마커는 이 종목, 세로 눈금은 전체 평균입니다.
기회이 종목 60.25
최하 46.95평균 67.34최상 84.31
위험이 종목 54.10 · 낮을수록 유리
최하 20.99평균 42.85최상 64.40
신뢰이 종목 82.04
최하 79.34평균 83.46최상 85.42
Research Rank이 종목 55.47
최하 47.49평균 62.36최상 75.32
감성이 종목 50.00
최하 47.33평균 51.29최상 55.33
SA 의견·팩터 등급
의견 · 등급 (1~5)
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수 | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | — | 4.38 | — |
| sa analyst | 보유 | 3.00 | 4 |
| wall street | 강력 매수 | 4.80 | 5 |
팩터 등급 추이
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | A | C- | C |
| growth | A | A | A- |
| profitability | D+ | D+ | D+ |
| momentum | A | A | A+ |
| revisions | B- | B+ | A |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | — | 25% | — |
| business quality | — | 20% | — |
| valuation | — | 15% | — |
| price trend | 39.47 | 15% | 5.92 |
| analyst opinion | 76.50 | 12% | 9.18 |
| news sentiment | 50.00 | 8% | 4.00 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 82.77 | 30% | 24.83 |
| expectation valuation | — | 25% | — |
| profitability cashflow | — | 20% | — |
| negative events | 20.00 | 15% | 3.00 |
| opinion data instability | 19.22 | 10% | 1.92 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 3.16 | 201.39% | 3.03 | 3.54 | 5 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 5.87 | 85.49% | 5.08 | 6.59 | 4 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 7.72 | 31.47% | 4.84 | 12.69 | 3 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 2.72B | 32.58% | 2.70B | 2.79B | 5 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 3.87B | 42.02% | 3.51B | 4.55B | 5 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 4.31B | 11.56% | 3.66B | 5.39B | 3 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q2 | 0.70 | 0.53 | +31.89% |
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.31 | 0.26 | +18.10% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.22 | 0.23 | -2.22% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.28 | 0.22 | +28.74% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q2 | 644.90M | 587.65M | +9.74% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 533.70M | 525.28M | +1.60% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 506.60M | 503.34M | +0.65% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 510.00M | 505.23M | +0.94% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EV / EBITDA (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Price / Sales (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| Revenue Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| EBITDA Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Net Income Margin (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Return on Common Equity (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED | |
| Cash From Operations (TTM) | — | — | — | NOT COVERED |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 50.00; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-08-11 · Value Vest
울트라 클린 홀딩스: 장부상 이익에도 여전히 현금 소진
- Ultra Clean Holdings earns a Hold rating after a 281% rally, as positive operating momentum is offset by weak cash flow and high leverage.
- Revenue, EBITDA, and operating income are recovering, driven by AI-related demand, but margins remain below the cost of capital, and free cash flow is negative.
- Inventory ballooned 61% year-over-year, absorbing $254M in cash and raising concerns about demand visibility and working capital management.
- Valuation appears discounted on P/S, but weak margins and negative cash flow justify patience; I await sustainable cash generation and inventory normalization.
neutral 2026-07-15 · Ryan Canady
울트라 클린 홀딩스: 2.1% 영업마진에 기댄 300% 랠리, 지속되기 어렵다
- Ultra Clean Holdings is up over 300% in a year, but I believe its premium valuation is unjustified given weak margins and negative cash flow.
- Despite robust semiconductor industry demand and management's optimism, UCTT's Q1 2026 GAAP operating margin was just 2.1% with a $17.9M net loss.
- Operating expenses rose 8% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth, and margin improvements are attributed to product mix rather than sustainable operational gains.
- Revenue is highly concentrated, with Lam Research and Applied Materials accounting for nearly 59%, and UCTT lacks long-term contracts, making revenue streams unstable.
neutral 2026-07-08 · Chris Lau
울트라 클린 홀딩스, 15% 가까이 급락한 후 어떻게 해야 할까? (NASDAQ:UCTT)
- Ultra Clean Holdings is positioned as an attractive buy ahead of its upcoming Q2 report, despite recent profit-taking-driven stock volatility.
- UCTT reported Q1 revenue of $533.7M (+2.9% Y/Y) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.31, beating consensus, with strong quant and revisions grades signaling bullish momentum.
- Management expects robust Wafer Fab Equipment demand, margin expansion, and capacity growth, supported by industry tailwinds and customer investments.
- A pre-earnings pullback, potentially driven by macro events, could offer a compelling entry point for investors seeking exposure to UCTT's growth trajectory.
neutral 2026-06-09 · The Straits Strategist
울트라 클린: 2026년 하반기 생산 확대와 저평가, 40억 달러 매출 로드맵 가속화
- Ultra Clean Holdings is initiated with a Buy rating, capitalizing on secular WFE expansion and discounted valuation versus peers.
- UCTT is a direct beneficiary of AMAT and LRCX growth, with 59% of FY2025 revenue derived from these customers, positioning it for outsized gains.
- The company is set to leverage underutilized capacity, targeting $4B in annual revenue and >20% margins by 2030 as WFE spending accelerates.
- Forward P/E compresses from 38.2x (FY26) to 23.1x (FY27) on consensus EPS growth, making UCTT attractively valued relative to subsystem and OEM peers.
neutral 2026-05-05 · The Alpha Sieve
Ultra Clean: WFE 전망 상향과 탄탄한 퀀트 점수는 긍정적이나, 조정 이후 진입이 바람직
- Ultra Clean Holdings has surged by 189% YTD, outperforming semiconductor and Russell 2000 peers handsomely, with a solid quant rating to boot.
- The upgrade in WFE outlook is poised to reflect well on UCTT's topline prospects, and with utilization at implied rates of under 75%, operating leverage too appears to be on the cards.
- UCTT is priced at an earnings multiple premium but offers compelling earnings growth; however, its FCF yield is quite poor by historical standards.
- The monthly charts imply some overextension, while a potential mean reversion trade versus other semiconductor offerings has already played out.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $103.77 | 74.27 | 43.37 | 69.19 |
| 2026-07-16 | $103.77 | 74.14 | 43.55 | 69.05 |
| 2026-07-17 | $92.60 | 72.63 | 44.56 | 67.71 |
| 2026-07-20 | $92.43 | 72.92 | 44.35 | 67.98 |
| 2026-07-21 | $91.76 | 75.95 | 44.31 | 70.18 |
| 2026-07-22 | $105.15 | 70.89 | 47.97 | 63.27 |
| 2026-07-23 | $101.46 | 72.01 | 48.50 | 63.85 |
| 2026-07-24 | $100.56 | 72.98 | 48.47 | 64.46 |
| 2026-07-27 | $92.75 | 72.42 | 48.76 | 64.05 |
| 2026-07-28 | $86.97 | 70.71 | 49.51 | 62.85 |
| 2026-07-29 | $77.50 | 68.34 | 52.15 | 60.84 |
| 2026-07-30 | $69.57 | 61.11 | 54.48 | 55.92 |
| 2026-07-31 | $83.23 | 63.67 | 55.81 | 57.22 |
| 2026-08-03 | $83.31 | 64.02 | 55.28 | 57.54 |
| 2026-08-04 | $89.17 | 67.82 | 55.28 | 59.88 |
| 2026-08-05 | $84.54 | 66.44 | 55.37 | 59.01 |
| 2026-08-06 | $80.20 | 66.84 | 55.05 | 59.32 |
| 2026-08-07 | $83.14 | 67.13 | 55.10 | 59.49 |
| 2026-08-10 | $87.25 | 68.03 | 55.43 | 59.98 |
| 2026-08-11 | $82.27 | 65.11 | 55.33 | 58.21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $86.06 | 66.11 | 55.28 | 58.83 |
| 2026-08-18 | $87.88 | 71.07 | 55.49 | 61.84 |
| 2026-08-19 | $81.82 | 65.44 | 55.67 | 58.34 |
| 2026-08-20 | $75.01 | 62.21 | 55.54 | 56.38 |
| 2026-08-21 | $73.01 | 60.78 | 55.27 | 55.55 |
| 2026-08-24 | $76.43 | 60.63 | 55.17 | 55.48 |
| 2026-09-01 | $67.83 | 60.25 | 54.10 | 55.47 |