전체 #22 · shadow_watch
UCTT · Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment · Opportunity 74.27, Risk 43.37, Confidence 96.62, Research Rank 69.19; 현재 선정 경계 71.55 미만
Research Rank
69.19
Opportunity
74.27
Risk
43.37
Evidence Confidence
96.62
가격 위치와 추세
현재가
$103.77
전일
5.62%
52주 위치
67.10%
60일 변동성
106.67%
SA 의견·팩터 등급
| 의견 | 등급 | 점수(1~5) | 인원 |
|---|---|---|---|
| quant | Strong Buy | 4.97 | — |
| sa analyst | BUY | 3.66 | 3 |
| wall street | STRONG BUY | 4.80 | 5 |
| 팩터 | 현재 | 3개월 전 | 6개월 전 |
|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | C- | D- | B |
| growth | A | A- | A- |
| profitability | D+ | D+ | D+ |
| momentum | A+ | A+ | A- |
| revisions | A+ | A | C+ |
점수 산식 분해
Opportunity
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimates revisions | 87.50 | 25% | 21.88 |
| business quality | 49.64 | 20% | 9.93 |
| valuation | 81.16 | 15% | 12.17 |
| price trend | 71.89 | 15% | 10.78 |
| analyst opinion | 86.93 | 12% | 10.43 |
| news sentiment | 51.00 | 8% | 4.08 |
| catalyst | 100.00 | 5% | 5.00 |
Risk
| 축 | 값 | 가중치 | 기여 |
|---|---|---|---|
| price volatility drawdown | 66.04 | 30% | 19.81 |
| expectation valuation | 41.07 | 25% | 10.27 |
| profitability cashflow | 39.69 | 20% | 7.94 |
| negative events | 26.00 | 15% | 3.90 |
| opinion data instability | 14.55 | 10% | 1.46 |
실적 추정치
| 종류·기간 | 추정 | YoY | Low | High | 애널리스트 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · Dec 2026 | 2.35 | 123.57% | 2.09 | 2.46 | 4 |
| EPS · Dec 2027 | 3.94 | 67.73% | 3.15 | 4.92 | 4 |
| EPS · Dec 2028 | 7.16 | 81.87% | 3.20 | 11.12 | 2 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2026 | 2.55B | 24.16% | 2.45B | 2.76B | 5 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2027 | 3.05B | 19.65% | 2.87B | 3.24B | 4 |
| REVENUE · Dec 2028 | 4.05B | 32.62% | 3.30B | 4.79B | 2 |
최근 어닝 서프라이즈
| 종류·분기 | 실제 | 컨센서스 | 서프라이즈 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · FY2026Q1 | 0.31 | 0.26 | +18.10% |
| EPS · FY2025Q4 | 0.22 | 0.23 | -2.22% |
| EPS · FY2025Q3 | 0.28 | 0.22 | +28.74% |
| EPS · FY2025Q2 | 0.27 | 0.27 | +0.00% |
| Revenue · FY2026Q1 | 533700000.00 | 525280250.00 | +1.60% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q4 | 506600000.00 | 503337500.00 | +0.65% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q3 | 510000000.00 | 505226000.00 | +0.94% |
| Revenue · FY2025Q2 | 518800000.00 | 500830000.00 | +3.59% |
종목 vs 섹터 근거
| 영역 | 지표 | 종목 | 섹터 | 차이 | 등급 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) | 90.97 | 26.12 | 248.31% | D- |
| valuation | P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) | 41.85 | 24.75 | 69.08% | D+ |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (TTM) | NM | 35.16 | NM | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | P/E GAAP (FWD) | 113.80 | 33.20 | 242.76% | D- |
| valuation | PEG GAAP (TTM) | - | 0.89 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) | 1.20 | 1.35 | -11.46% | B- |
| valuation | EV / Sales (TTM) | 2.39 | 3.78 | -36.87% | B |
| valuation | EV / Sales (FWD) | 1.94 | 3.50 | -44.66% | B |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 41.68 | 19.53 | 113.44% | D+ |
| valuation | EV / EBITDA (FWD) | 22.55 | 14.72 | 53.19% | C- |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (TTM) | 116.95 | 28.14 | 315.62% | D- |
| valuation | EV / EBIT (FWD) | 28.04 | 19.40 | 44.56% | C- |
| valuation | Price / Sales (TTM) | 2.15 | 3.68 | -41.43% | B |
| valuation | Price / Sales (FWD) | 1.73 | 3.37 | -48.75% | B+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (TTM) | 7.01 | 4.06 | 72.78% | D+ |
| valuation | Price / Book (FWD) | 6.26 | 4.69 | 33.67% | C |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (TTM) | 1,074.24 | 19.21 | 5,493.55% | F |
| valuation | Price / Cash Flow (FWD) | - | 18.88 | - | NOT COVERED |
| valuation | Dividend Yield (TTM) | - | 1.15% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Revenue Growth (YoY) | -3.25% | 11.36% | NM | D- |
| growth | Revenue Growth (FWD) | 13.31% | 11.99% | 11.04% | C+ |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (YoY) | -27.67% | 14.90% | NM | F |
| growth | EBITDA Growth (FWD) | 21.76% | 18.71% | 16.32% | C+ |
| growth | EBIT Growth (YoY) | -51.94% | 17.19% | NM | F |
| growth | EBIT Growth (FWD) | 21.38% | 20.77% | 2.90% | C+ |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (YoY) | NM | 17.08% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS Diluted Growth (FWD) | 83.82% | 17.54% | 377.94% | A+ |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (YoY) | NM | 12.73% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | EPS GAAP Growth (FWD) | 83.82% | 17.58% | 376.84% | A |
| growth | EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) | 35.00% | 18.92% | 85.01% | A- |
| growth | Levered FCF Growth (YoY) | NM | 8.54% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) | 439.01% | 17.43% | 2,418.16% | A+ |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) | -95.08% | 15.41% | NM | F |
| growth | Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) | 74.99% | 17.12% | 337.98% | A |
| growth | ROE Growth (YoY) | NM | 3.24% | NM | NOT COVERED |
| growth | ROE Growth (FWD) | 56.27% | 5.62% | 902.03% | A |
| growth | Working Capital Growth (YoY) | 16.66% | 8.14% | 104.71% | B- |
| growth | CAPEX Growth (YoY) | -17.96% | 13.92% | NM | D |
| growth | Dividend Per Share Growth (FWD) | - | 5.93% | - | NOT COVERED |
| growth | 1 Year Dividend Growth Rate (TTM) | - | 4.83% | - | NOT COVERED |
| profitability | Gross Profit Margin (TTM) | 15.63% | 49.88% | -68.67% | D- |
| profitability | EBIT Margin (TTM) | 2.04% | 7.61% | -73.20% | C |
| profitability | EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 5.72% | 12.07% | -52.60% | C |
| profitability | Net Income Margin (TTM) | -9.38% | 6.07% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | Levered FCF Margin (TTM) | -1.77% | 10.88% | NM | D+ |
| profitability | Return on Common Equity (TTM) | -25.88% | 7.52% | NM | D |
| profitability | Return on Total Capital (TTM) | 1.72% | 4.63% | -62.80% | C |
| profitability | Return on Total Assets (TTM) | -10.46% | 3.32% | NM | D |
| profitability | CAPEX / Sales (TTM) | 2.30% | 2.35% | -2.35% | C+ |
| profitability | Asset Turnover Ratio (TTM) | 1.10x | 0.63x | 75.53% | A |
| profitability | Cash From Operations (TTM) | 4.10M | 149.24M | -97.25% | D+ |
| profitability | Cash Per Share (TTM) | 7.22 | 2.34 | 208.73% | A- |
| profitability | Net Income Per Employee (TTM) | -27.94K | 14.03K | NM | D+ |
뉴스 10건
제목 기반 감성 51.00; 원문 링크로 근거 확인
neutral 2026-04-28 ·
Ultra clean projects Q2 revenue of $565M-$605M while expecting gross margin to improve through the year
positive 2026-04-28 ·
Ultra Clean Holdings Non-GAAP EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.05, revenue of $533.7M beats by $8.42M
neutral 2026-02-23 ·
Ultra Clean signals $4B revenue run rate strategy as AI-driven semiconductor demand accelerates
분석 글 5건과 핵심 주장
neutral 2026-07-08 · Chris Lau
What To Do After Ultra Clean Holdings Fell By Nearly 15%
- Ultra Clean Holdings is positioned as an attractive buy ahead of its upcoming Q2 report, despite recent profit-taking-driven stock volatility.
- UCTT reported Q1 revenue of $533.7M (+2.9% Y/Y) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.31, beating consensus, with strong quant and revisions grades signaling bullish momentum.
- Management expects robust Wafer Fab Equipment demand, margin expansion, and capacity growth, supported by industry tailwinds and customer investments.
- A pre-earnings pullback, potentially driven by macro events, could offer a compelling entry point for investors seeking exposure to UCTT's growth trajectory.
neutral 2026-06-09 · The Straits Strategist
Ultra Clean: H2 2026 Production Ramp Accelerates The Roadmap To $4B In Revenue
- Ultra Clean Holdings is initiated with a Buy rating, capitalizing on secular WFE expansion and discounted valuation versus peers.
- UCTT is a direct beneficiary of AMAT and LRCX growth, with 59% of FY2025 revenue derived from these customers, positioning it for outsized gains.
- The company is set to leverage underutilized capacity, targeting $4B in annual revenue and >20% margins by 2030 as WFE spending accelerates.
- Forward P/E compresses from 38.2x (FY26) to 23.1x (FY27) on consensus EPS growth, making UCTT attractively valued relative to subsystem and OEM peers.
neutral 2026-05-05 · The Alpha Sieve
Ultra Clean: WFE Upgrades Bodes Well, But Preferable To Wait For A Pullback
- Ultra Clean Holdings has surged by 189% YTD, outperforming semiconductor and Russell 2000 peers handsomely, with a solid quant rating to boot.
- The upgrade in WFE outlook is poised to reflect well on UCTT's topline prospects, and with utilization at implied rates of under 75%, operating leverage too appears to be on the cards.
- UCTT is priced at an earnings multiple premium but offers compelling earnings growth; however, its FCF yield is quite poor by historical standards.
- The monthly charts imply some overextension, while a potential mean reversion trade versus other semiconductor offerings has already played out.
neutral 2026-02-24 · Chris Lau
Why Ultra Clean Soared After Reporting Fourth Quarter Results
- Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. is positioned for structural expansion, mapping its growth to the accelerating AI cycle and wafer fab equipment demand.
- Q4 revenue beat expectations at $506.6 million, with a modest EPS miss; cash flow from operations improved to $8.1 million.
- UCTT forecasts Q1 revenue of $505–$545 million and expects a significant business acceleration from Q3 to Q4, driven by AI infrastructure catalysts.
- Despite premium valuation (D+ on valuation/profitability), UCTT holds a Strong Buy Quant Rating, supported by sector-leading growth and stock momentum.
neutral 2025-10-22 · MarketGyrations
Ultra Clean Holdings: Why The Rally May Not Have Much Further To Go (Technical Analysis)
- UCTT has rallied higher in the past half year, but there are several reasons why the stock may find it harder to continue much higher.
- Earnings have gone down in recent quarters, but the market has pushed the stock higher in anticipation of better numbers due to heavy AI spending.
- UCTT needs earnings to improve, but it may not be able to live up to expectations due to export controls imposed by China.
- There is the risk UCTT may fall short when it reports next, which is why I am neutral on UCTT with a hold rating.
일별 트래킹
| 날짜 | 가격 | 기회 | 위험 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $103.77 | 74.27 | 43.37 | 69.19 |